SSA Actuary Analysis of 17 Different Proposals to Fix the Social Security Trust Funds

[GailL1]

 Really interesting the places their heads are going -

January 3, 2025

Steny Hoyer, Wendell Primus

Estimates of the Financial Effects on Social Security of potential legislation to improve the solvency of the Social Security Trust Funds, requested by Representative Steny Hoyer and Wendell Primus (PDF version)

[Tonster521]

@GailL1 I am surprised that there have not been any replies to these 11th hour proposals from Rep. Hoyer and Wendell Primus. I did not know Wendell Primus's background and experience. So I searched the internet and found his resume chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Primus-CV-2023.pdf 

It appears that Wendell Primus worked for Speaker Pelosi for 17 years through 2022. Please note the date, December 20, 2024, of Rep. Hoyer's letter which is one day before Congress passed the SS Fairness Act on December 21, 2024. Section 12 of Rep. Hoyer's letter provides a replacement for the WEP and GPO using a revised reduction approach/formula based on all Earnings (Covered and Uncovered) along with an actuary cost for such revision. I am sure that the 17 proposals developed by Hoyer and Primus were available long before December 20, 2024.It is not clear when Rep Hoyer requested Primus and Brookings help which I suspect was not done pro bono. It is known that Rep. Hoyer married a Fellow at Brooking within the last 1.5 years. Lastly, this is another advisory piece of information that was either withheld from Congress or Congress elected to disregard the information regarding revising WEP and GPO. Congress elected to repeal WEP and GPO which is estimated to cost the SS Trust Fund over $200 Billion and reduce SS Benefits for approximately 57 million folks one (1) year earlier (maybe 2033). Talk about fair representation.

Take a look at Section 11 of the Hoyer/Primus (Brookings) proposal. It appears to me that the Spousal Benefit was slated to be reduced by 5% per year starting January 2027.It would be eliminated by 2036. Do you read the same?

[GailL1]

@Tonster521 

Yes, I read both of these proposals like you do -

from the link:

Section 11. Reduce the dependent spouse benefit by 5 percentage points per year beginning on January 1, 2027, so that it is completely eliminated by 2036. In addition, completely eliminate
the dependent spouse benefit on January 1, 2030 for any dependent spouse of a spouse in the top quartile of career average earnings (AIME).

The dependent spouse, as far as I can see, would be spousal benefits as well as divorced spouse benefits and perhaps even child in care benefits. As well as the % a spouse may get if the primary account holder is on SSDI.  They all go by the description of dependent spouse benefits. 

There is also this one concerning Surviving Spouses.

From the link:

Section 14. Establish an alternative benefit for surviving spouses, effective in 2027. For the
surviving spouse, the alternative benefit would equal 75 percent of the sum of the survivor's
own worker benefit and the deceased worker's PIA (including any actuarial reductions or
delayed retirement credits).

And also this one:

Section 9. End child benefits for children of retirees and the associated caregiver (father or
mother) benefit prospectively beginning in January 2027. The benefit would continue for
disabled children, adopted children, and grandchildren.

I did see the change they wanted to make to the WEP/GPO rather than elimination of it. 

From the link:  Section 12. Replace the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset with a revised reduction for most OASDI benefits based upon all earnings (both covered and non-covered earnings) beginning with beneficiaries newly eligible in 2027. No reductions from WEP or GPO would apply to workers with fewer than ten years of non-covered work.

That seems like wishful thinking at this point and time. 

Did you see this one: From the link:

Section 6. Cover all newly hired state and local government employees, beginning in 2032.

It will go NO where but yes, I am surprised as to whom some of these are contributed - but it was after the election.  🤔