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Re: Please tell me I'm wrong

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Can you see this tweet? This guy gives an explanation as to why the epidemic would either be pretty small (only 3-5% infected this go-round) or huge.   There doesn't seem to be much middle ground in the models.   I don't know if it's right, but it was interesting.

 

https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1246957709682806785?s=20 

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Re: Please tell me I'm wrong

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You bring up a good point about Herd Immunity.  It has virtually rid the world of Smallpox.

 

HI works if a person who is infected goes interacts with mostly immune people.  They cannot spread the disease.  But the percentage of immune (either from recovering from the disease or by vaccine) is pretty high.

 

It's estimated that Covid may reach 74%.  Yet Measles and Pertussis have reached over 90% HI and are still a danger.

 

The Spanish Flu was almost under complete control by early 1918. The second wave was far more deadly due to complacency and a possible mutation. 

 

I think a combination of physical distancing (We want to keep close socially, as we can electronically), vaccine development, and antiviral drugs are going to be the key.  But when messages from those with ulterior motives (The luddites in Britain blaming cell service, or those more worried about their stock portfolios) or political leaders conflicts with the scientists, there is a real problem.

 

For those of us who are over 65, I do not see that we will be able to interact with other people for at least a year.  The chances of infection are going to be high.  Buying something at a store can mean receiving change that has been touched by dozens of people, the door has been touched by hundreds.  And even if only 1/1000 carries the virus, one will almost certainly be exposed.

 

 

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Re: Please tell me I'm wrong

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I agree much of the information is vague or changes. 

I don't  know how they came up with the 100,000 - 240,000 projected deaths and agree that seems low given other information they state, like infection rates. But I'm not an epidemiologist. I do know once a significant number of people gain immunity, the speed of transmission will slow.  Summer will probably be ok but not 100% normal, but I do worry about what winter will look like. Probably another round of high infection rates, although hopefully not as bad.

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Please tell me I'm wrong

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I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but there are some recommendations and facts being provided that don’t make sense.  My own interpretations could be wrong, (and I hope I am wrong), but the information we are getting seems a bit too optimistic.  I think most were errors in interpretation and no one pushed back on the conclusions.
 
I believe that misinformation makes it difficult for people to trust/follow recommendations and that the officials should  review some things and correct them and accept there may have been some honest mistakes. 
Public Statement 1.  We can expect the current stay in place rules through April.
This is like a rolling blackout:  What will be different in May?   August?  December?  Shouldn't we prepare to continue isolation through NEXT April when a vaccine might be available?  What conditions need to exist before we can be safe out in public?
 Public Statement 2:    100,000 may die. do they estimate a figure of 100,000,000 deaths?
Does not add up:  I come up with over 3 Milion
US Pop: 350 millioon
60% will become infected: 210M
10% hospitalization: 21M
1.5% mortality: 3.15M 
And that assumes there is enough medical personnel, beds, respirators and respiratory therapists?
Public Statement 3.  The choke point is the number of ventilators.  We’re making more.
Red Herring: There’s only110,000 Respiratory Therapists in the US.  There aren't enough trained people to run these machines.  What's being done about that?
Public Statement 4: Masks should only be worn by those with Covid-19 and medical professionals.
 
Misdirection: This is telling us we don’t NEED the masks.  I understand that medical professionals and those with the infection need it more, but if it is effective, it is effective for all. As anyone could be pre-symptomatic or part of the 20% asymtomatic, we ALL should be wearing masks.
Public Statement 5: We hear estimates that the hospitals may be completely full around May first. Stay at Home so resources will be available.
True for the public at large, but:  For those who may be turned away from hospital resources through Triage, wouldn’t it be better (albeit selfish)  to try to become infected NOW?
This is still new, and I don’t think there is a major effort to feed false information, but some assumptions are not being questioned.  I would love to find that all my interpretations are incorrect.
 
Rick
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