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Treasured Social Butterfly
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Re: Which Pollsters To Trust In 2018

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The "grades" are helpful as well, especially with the R/D +/-


"FAKE 45 #illegitimate" read a sign at the Woman's March in Washington DC, January 21, 2017.
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Re: Which Pollsters To Trust In 2018

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Yes, I’ve looked at the polls in aggregate for several elections now.   Several websites make that easy to do. 

 

I do not know much out the individual polls. I am more likely to believe those with larger samples. Something else to research I guess. 

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Which Pollsters To Trust In 2018

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Which Pollsters To Trust In 2018

 

As FiveThirtyEight has evolved over the past 10 years, we’ve taken an increasingly “macro” view of polling. By that, I mean: We’re more interested in how the polls are doing overall — and in broad trends within the polling industry — and less in how individual polls or pollsters are performing. As we described in an article earlier this week, overall the polls are doing … all right. Contrary to the narrative about the polls, polling accuracy has been fairly constant over the past couple of decades in the U.S. and other democratic countries.

 

Still, in election coverage, the “micro” matters too, and our newly updated pollster ratings — in which we evaluate the performance of individual polling firms based on their methodology and past accuracy — are still a foundational part of FiveThirtyEight. They figure into the algorithms that we design to measure President Trump’s approval ratings and to forecast elections (higher-rated pollsters get more weight in the projections). And sometimes those pollster ratings can reveal broad trends too: For example, after a reasonably strong 2012, online polls were fairly inaccurate in 2016.

 

The ratings also allow us to measure pollster performance over a large sample of elections — rather than placing a disproportionate amount of emphasis on one or two high-profile races. For instance, Rasmussen Reports deserves a lot of credit for its final, national poll of the 2016 presidential election, which had Hillary Clinton ahead by 2 percentage points, almost her exact margin of victory in the popular vote. But Rasmussen Reports polls are conducted by a Rasmussen spinoff called Pulse Opinion Research LLC, and state polls conducted by Rasmussen and Pulse Opinion Research over the past year or two have generally been mediocre.

 

Much more at:  Which Pollsters To Trust In 2018

 

Poll ratings can be seen here:  Poll Ratings


"FAKE 45 #illegitimate" read a sign at the Woman's March in Washington DC, January 21, 2017.
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