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Re: Trumps NAFTA options

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Trumps NAFTA options

 

I doubt Trump has any options, a big chuck of his base is rural America and that means farms and farm exports to Mexico and Canada that depend on NAFTA. 

 

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/farmers-fear-impact-of-u-s-exit-from-nafta/

 

Farmers fear impact of U.S. exit from NAFTA

 

WASHINGTON - Some of the staunchest resistance to President Donald Trump's threats to abandon the North American Free Trade Agreement could come from some of his staunchest supporters: farmers.

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Trumps NAFTA options

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As top trade negotiators from Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. sit down to renegotiate the NAFTA trade agreement, Trump's limited options come into focus.

 

First, no business community member, no enterprise, no farm group ever asked for this. “This whole business of renegotiating NAFTA was a campaign pledge in search of a constituency,” said Scott Miller, a former lobbyist for Procter & Gamble now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

 

Second, business groups warn that pulling out of the pact would endanger an estimated 14 million jobs that depend on trade with Canada and Mexico. Trump could just pull out, but then he has a lot of explaining to do to people who voted for him and then got hit in the pocketbook. 

 

Trump could strike a deal but then he has to get it through the Republican controlled Congress. Based on his rapport with them over healthcare, there is a good chance he would never submit it for a vote. Then, he looks all kinds of weak. 

 

This is a 23 year old agreement and it needs updating. The fear is that Trump has weakened his brand and is so unable to concentrate on details that he will not be able to modernize a treaty he can't afford to abandon.  The term, "painted into a corner" comes to mind. 

 

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