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If Trump was rational and logical, I would worry about him coming out of this free fall. However, since he's irrational, dumb, and paranoid, I don't think he has the skill set necessary to make the appropriate corrections. 

 

It's possible that Trump might sink so low, he'll once again need help from his master, Vladimir.

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@CriticalThinking wrote:

These poll numbers are very interesting but we have 5 months to go and a lot can change.

 

Here's a number I saw last week that got my attention. College educated REPUBLICAN women, who supported Trump at around 47% in the 2016 election (that's an estimate), are now at 29%. That's right, 7 out of 10 college educated Republican women are ready to vote for the Democratic candidate. I don't know what's wrong with Republican men.

 

As for Trump's Cult, he's played to that base non-stop since being elected. He said one thing during the 2016 campaign which is very true. He could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue in NYC and he wouldn't lose a single vote. Truer words were never spoken. Inside the cult, it doesn't matter what Trump says or does, they will vote for him. That's how it works in a cult.


"Republican men"?   McConnell is a "Republican man", does that explain it?


Biden/Harris 2020 !
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These poll numbers are very interesting but we have 5 months to go and a lot can change.

 

Here's a number I saw last week that got my attention. College educated REPUBLICAN women, who supported Trump at around 47% in the 2016 election (that's an estimate), are now at 29%. That's right, 7 out of 10 college educated Republican women are ready to vote for the Democratic candidate. I don't know what's wrong with Republican men.

 

As for Trump's Cult, he's played to that base non-stop since being elected. He said one thing during the 2016 campaign which nobody could argue with. He could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue in NYC and he wouldn't lose a single vote. Truer words were never spoken.

 

Inside the cult, it doesn't matter what Trump says or does, they will vote for him. They have no standards for decency, honesty, and respect, those qualities are irrelevant in Trump World. As long as they perceive him as the man who stands up for white people, they will remain loyal. That's how it works in a cult.

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Right now, it seems that Donald Trump is focusing in playing to his base. But he needs to win more than just his base of cult followers. Polls are showing that Donald Trump is in serious trouble among other key demographics of voters across the country. He is trailing badly among women and those voters with a college degree.

 

Most troubling for Trump's electoral prospects is a recent poll conducted among seniors, age 65 and over, in Florida showing Trump behind by more than ten points. Seniors are a key voting bloc in Florida and perhaps Florida is the most important swing state in the election. In addition seniors are the age demographic that is most at risk of COVID 19 the disease caused by the coronavirus and death. If this poll is accurate and holds up through election day, Trump is definitely in deep trouble.

 

Another factor is voter turnout among African American voters. In 2016 voter turnout among African Americans was much less than in 2012 and 2008 when Barack Obama was on the ballot. No doubt in many key states, that could made a difference in the electoral vote that made Trump President. This year, it seems that African Americans are energized as much as they were when Obama was on the ballot. With the events of the past week and Trump's response, echoing a racist saying from the 1960s; it appears that African Americans are even more energized now against Trump.

 

All this doesn't look very good for Donald Trump's re-election chances this year. Some projections are showing him losing in a landslide as big as Herbert Hoover losing to FDR in 1932 with most swing states turning blue. Even such reliably red states like Texas and Georgia are considered as "in play" this year.

 

Compounding all this is a movement among more moderate Republicans to go against Trump this year in an effort to "cleanse" the Republican party of Trump. If this movement gathers momentum, it could also really hurt Trump's chances of a second term.

 

Very often it takes a crisis to show a President's leadership skills and how they navigate through the crisis. A crisis could come up suddenly and often without warning. No one could see the September 11 2001 attacks coming. Yet George W Bush showed some skills at leadership when he rallied the country following the attacks. His support and popularity carried all the way to the 2002 mid term elections where his Republican party bucked tradition and increased their seats in congress. The Cuban Missile Crisis showed how a young President JFK could be calm and strong in a crisis. But Donald Trump has showed that he has no clue about how to lead through a crisis.

Instead of uniting and inspiring the country; he is using his all too familiar tactics of dividing the country and pandering to some of its worst elements.

 

In one sense this all reminds me of 1968 when it seemed that the country was coming apart at the seams. The recent spate of riots is very similar to the riots across the nation following the killing of Martin Luther King Jr. In addition the country was deeply divided over the Vietnam War and the incumbent President saw just how those divisions as well as his unpopularity could affect the election.

 

President Lyndon Johnson took himself out of the running in 1968. But his Vice President Hubert Humphrey ultimately became the candidate of the Democratic party, but he was seen by many as another continuation of LBJ's unpopular policies in Vietnam.

 

In the 1968 campaign Republican candidate Richard Nixon used the term "law and order" as a campaign theme and won a close election. However that option is not much help to Trump since he is the incumbent President. He is showing that he is great at talking, but terrible at any constructive action. IMHO, any action that Donald Trump does now and for the remainder of the year might only make his chances of a second term worse. Yes, Trump is in a free fall and he is to blame for it - no one else.

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Trump is in a free fall - for now.

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Here is a new op-ed from Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin. She is one of the more conservative columnists at the Washington Post and what she says here is critical. Donald Trump's presidency seems to be in a free fall that he is unable to control. His most recent polls are showing a strong decline in how he stacks up against his presumptive Democratic opponent in November. In March, before the coronavirus caused the shut down of the nation's economy and the death toll began mounting from the pandemic, he was in a statistical dead heat with Joe Biden. Now, three months later, Biden has a strong ten point lead in most reliable polls. From the column:

 

The magnitude of President Trump’s polling collapse is breathtaking. The Post-ABC News poll in March showed his approval rating nudging into positive territory (48 percent approval vs. 46 percent disapproval); the latest poll released on Sunday shows him back in negative territory (45 percent to 53 percent). His personal favorability is net -13. His rating on handling the coronavirus has gone from a net +6 to a net -7.

 

Even more dramatically, from a statistical tie (49 percent to 47 percent) in March, former vice president Joe Biden’s lead has soared to a 10-point lead (53 percent to 43 percent). Biden has an enormous approval advantage among groups critical to his victory. “Currently, suburbanites are more favorable toward Biden than they were toward Clinton in May 2016, with Biden at 50 percent favorable compared with 38 percent who were favorable toward Clinton then.”

 

The poll was completed before the extent of the reaction to George Floyd’s unjustified killing had played out. Nevertheless, there are several points worth stressing.

 

First, though intensity of support for Biden lags Trump’s, the backlash provoked by Floyd’s killing could well increase the strength of Biden’s support. A historic vice president pick might help generate more excitement, particularly if Biden selects a woman of color. In the current context, that could be seen as not just a rebuttal to the MAGA crowd’s racism but also a reminder to Democratic voters how critical is this election.

 

Second, while the Floyd killing underscored how entirely Trump lacks in leadership skills and empathy, no one knows five months before Election Day how this episode will unfold in the weeks and months ahead. Normally, a Republican might be able to tap into a backlash against violent protests, as Richard Nixon did in 1968. That worked, however, because a Democrat was in the White House. Trump cannot be the law-and-order president if the cities are on fire. So far, he looks weak and pitiful, utterly incapable of meeting the moment.

 

Third, violence in the streets may deepen the two other crises occurring on Trump’s watch: the pandemic and the economic collapse. Retail businesses that were already struggling to stay afloat may have experienced damage and/or looting, or more generally, that may have driven people back into their homes, now doubly concerned for their safety. The proximity of thousands of demonstrators, even if many are masked, raises the potential for a new surge in coronavirus cases among the very groups (e.g., African Americans) already hardest hit by the pandemic.

 

Fourth, it is entirely possible that Trump’s performance will get even worse. A massive and disproportionate reaction from law enforcement, God forbid, may result in even more prolonged, destructive demonstrations. The longer Trump is viewed as overwhelmed by the explosion of racial animus and violence that he helped ignite, the greater the thirst for change.

 

In sum, Biden could well be heading for a decisive win. However, no one should underestimate Trump. One thing we know for sure: He will have no qualms about making racial divisions deeper and instigating violence. He’s done it before.

 

Read the entire column at this link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/01/trump-is-free-fall-now/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most... 

 

 

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