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Honored Social Butterfly

Top coronavirus model significantly lowers total estimates of US deaths in new projection

By Adam Shaw

 

A key coronavirus model has lowered its estimate of total U.S. deaths in its latest projection of how many will die due to the contagious virus.

 

The revision will likely fuel criticism from skeptics that initial projections were overblown, and one that government leaders may use to say that efforts to combat the spread are working.

 

The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) lowered its projection of total deaths from 68,841 (with an estimate range of 30,188 to 175,965) to just over 60,308 (with an estimate range of 34,063 to 140,381) in an update published Friday.

 

The institute said that change was partially driven by both higher estimates in states like New York and New Jersey, and lower projections in states like Massachusetts, Connecticut, Georgia and Florida.

 

“By incorporating the trend in cases alongside COVID-19 deaths in our model, many locations are now predicted to have longer peaks and are taking longer to move down the epidemic curve to zero deaths,” a statement from the institute said. “Subsequently, these places now have higher projections for cumulative COVID-19 deaths through the first wave.”

 

The projection is significantly lower than prior estimates from the IHME, which last month was predicting 84,000 deaths from the virus.

 

Those supportive of such modeling say that it is not a crystal ball, but a snapshot of a situation based on the data and facts available at the time. As those facts change, so do the models. Since those 84,000 estimates, more states have implemented sweeping social distancing and lockdown measures in an effort to slow the spread of infections. Revising models show that those strategies are working, they say.

 

“That is modeled on what America is doing. That’s what’s happening," Dr. Deborah Birx told reporters last week when asked about the modeling.

 

CLOSELY WATCHED CORONAVIRUS MODEL OF US DEATHS EXPECTED TO BE LOWERED IN NEW PROJECTION

 

“It’s a little bit like forecasting the weather,”  Dr. Christopher Murray, who helps create the model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told “America’s Newsroom” anchor Ed Henry on Friday.

 

"We try to take into account all the data that is coming in from all the states and so all of our numbers are going to be revised as we see progress faster or slower. But, overall, we think that the general trend that we’ve seen since the beginning is a range between 40,000 to 150,000 deaths being where we’ll fallout for the country come June," he said.

 

But the new numbers will also fuel critics of the lockdown strategy taken by governors and local officials, who say the aggressive shut down of daily life across America was based on projections by models that turned out not to align with reality.

 

Protests have broken out across the country in recent days over the lockdown strategy, with demonstrators in states like Minnesota and Michigan turning out to push back against what they see as an overreach from their state governments. They have seen the backing of President Trump who has tweeted out calls to "liberate" those states.

 

Former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson, who has become a top voice in those pushing back against the lockdown strategy, has argued that the models have social distancing baked in to them, so that cannot be tagged for the reason why the projections are being lowered.

 

“Now we’re in a bad spot because there’s clearly a dangerous political dynamic right now -- the economy is in freefall, a lot of people are hurting. If we acknowledge what is clearly happening ... the people who made these decisions, I think there’s going to be a lot of anger at them, so they don't want to acknowledge it, so they say 'oh it's the lockdown that saved us,'” former Berenson told Fox News last week.

 

Others have said that the model is simply not suited to policy-making at all

“That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, who has served on a search committee for IHME, said according to Stat News. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”

 

President Trump this week announced a new committee to re-open the economy in stages, “Opening Up America Again" as he said the peak of the virus has passed.

 

The plan, which Trump announced along with the formation of a bipartisan council of lawmakers from both chambers of Congress, outlines “recommendations” for governors to develop their own plans to reopen. It also includes a number of criteria that must be met in terms of numbers of infections and hospitalizations before they can open up.

 

 

 

VIMTSTL
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Honored Social Butterfly

I'm  trying to ABSORB new information .... in the tipsy topsy world of Trumpsters.   

 

So it would be a disgrace---a shame---a  terrible thing ....even a laughing matter or JOKE if  not as many die as was projected. from the virus cause people are mostly listening to the VIROLOGIST and not to TRUMP and his hyenas   ?  

 

YUP and it would be a horrible thing if we cleaned up the planet and our polluting habits had nothing to do with climate changes  ?       

 

 

 

Honored Social Butterfly

“It’s a little bit like forecasting the weather,”  Dr. Christopher Murray, who helps create the model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told “America’s Newsroom” anchor Ed Henry on Friday.

 

"We try to take into account all the data that is coming in from all the states and so all of our numbers are going to be revised as we see progress faster or slower. But, overall, we think that the general trend that we’ve seen since the beginning is a range between 40,000 to 150,000 deaths being where we’ll fallout for the country come June," he said.

 

But the new numbers will also fuel critics of the lockdown strategy taken by governors and local officials, who say the aggressive shut down of daily life across America was based on projections by models that turned out not to align with reality.

 

Protests have broken out across the country in recent days over the lockdown strategy, with demonstrators in states like Minnesota and Michigan turning out to push back against what they see as an overreach from their state governments. They have seen the backing of President Trump who has tweeted out calls to "liberate" those states.

 

 

 

 

 

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@jimc91 wrote:

 

Protests have broken out across the country in recent days over the lockdown strategy, with demonstrators in states like Minnesota and Michigan turning out to push back against what they see as an overreach from their state governments. They have seen the backing of President Trump who has tweeted out calls to "liberate" those states.


 

And you don't think this is dangerous?  Calling for insurrection?

 

This from Tweedledummy who said the states need to handle it and then, he puts out a call to liberate them.

 

Really?

Honored Social Butterfly

Protests have broken out across the country in recent days over the lockdown strategy, with demonstrators in states like Minnesota and Michigan turning out to push back against what they see as an overreach from their state governments. They have seen the backing of President Trump who has tweeted out calls to "liberate" those states.

=======================================================

" overreach from their state governments"

That they have and it is time for citizens to protest, and they have with peaceful protests unlike the BLM protests.

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@KidBoy2 wrote:
Protests have broken out across the country in recent days over the lockdown strategy, with demonstrators in states like Minnesota and Michigan turning out to push back against what they see as an overreach from their state governments. They have seen the backing of President Trump who has tweeted out calls to "liberate" those states.

=======================================================

" overreach from their state governments"

That they have and it is time for citizens to protest, and they have with peaceful protests unlike the BLM protests.


If the protesting makes  the states open up early and then the virus spreads and spikes, don't complain here if someone you know or a family member catches the virus. 

 

The idiots protesting is not a legitimate reason to end lock-downs, their protests are not based on science or medicine.


Man learns from history that man learns nothing from history.
Honored Social Butterfly


@KidBoy2 wrote:
Protests have broken out across the country in recent days over the lockdown strategy, with demonstrators in states like Minnesota and Michigan turning out to push back against what they see as an overreach from their state governments. They have seen the backing of President Trump who has tweeted out calls to "liberate" those states.

=======================================================

" overreach from their state governments"

That they have and it is time for citizens to protest, and they have with peaceful protests unlike the BLM protests.


Since when was a Confederate flag symbolic of "peace"?

 

Since when was a Nazi Swastika symbolic of "peace"?

 

Since when were rabid wackos standing in line blocking the steps to a State Capitol while brandishing their assault rifles symbolic of "peace"?

 

A Confederate flagis a symbol of treason.

A Nazi Swastika is a symbol of intense hatred.

Brandishing firearms is a threat to kill.

 

No KidBoy2 ..... the protesters NEVER exhibited any "peace" ... only treason, hatred and the need to threaten others!!!

 

 

DUMP TRUMP AND DITCH MITCH TO MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!
Honored Social Butterfly


@jimc91 wrote:

“It’s a little bit like forecasting the weather,” 

"We try to take into account all the data that is coming in from all the states and so all of our numbers are going to be revised as we see progress faster or slower.

That makes sense in forecasting elections too.   This one, we're talking not only votes...but deaths - gained in the months ahead as we slog through our pandemic natural disaster. 

 

Protests have broken out across the country in recent days .... They have seen the backing of President Trump who has tweeted out calls to "liberate" those states.

He has no choice but to follow leadership of state's governors -while his cult acts out for him his little fits of, "I don't have to!" .  This will result in deaths of the pathetic.  When the going gets good for states, he'll kiss and make up.  Brag that this liberation thing was his idea in the first place so he's officially celebrating his 2nd term, no matter WHAT.   I could puke.

 

jim, I've asked you several times in the past about an upcoming civil war and you never respond, ever.   dt's call to arms sure has people out in force jumping up and down though.  You sound excited too!  Big treat for the Cult.  Instead of rallies-around-trump, it's protests-for-trump.  With guns.  So it's time to fess up, let the skirmishes of Americans against Americans begin.

In earnest.  We're under siege.  dt can't admit the virus intends to kill him.  Not him!

 

 


 

Honored Social Butterfly

First off, protecting citizens is not overreaching. And the protesters are not interested in protecting anyone, including others around them. We also need to protect ourselves from the protesters!
Then consider the June date. There seem to be a number of medical experts who are predicting another outbreak of the same virus in the fall. If that is what takes place, where will protections come from, and what will the numbers look like come November?

 

And trump now wants to incite riots...figures, that's just the behavior of a dictator, not an American Patriot. 

 

Honored Social Butterfly

It appears that even Forbes is suspicious of the IHME forecasts.  "Motivated reasoning is a fourth factor, whereby people attach undue weight to evidence that supports a position they hold, and correspondingly insufficient weight to evidence that does not. In this regard, Professor Mokdar has stated in interviews (cited above) that from the first, he and his team have thought that the total number of deaths would not exceed 100,000."

 

 

It is possible for the eventual total number of deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 to be about 68,000, as predicted by the IHME model. We should hope that this turns out to be the case. However, for that to happen, the country needs to reduce the transmission rate from above 2 to a hair above 1.0.

Doing so would be a tall order in the best of times. However, given the lack of political uniformity across the country, in respect to willingness to engage in sustained containment, this is not the best of times.

There is a distinct risk that the IHME forecasts of COVID-19 related deaths exhibit unrealistic optimism bias. This bias has many contributing factors, and I can only offer speculative remarks here.

Being familiar with the forecasting task at hand is one factor; this condition most certainly applies to IHME professionals.

Desirability, otherwise known as wishful thinking is a second factor; this condition is, I think, self-evident.

Becoming anchored on an estimate is a third factor. In this regard, the U.S. death rate for seasonal flu, at just under 35,000, might have served as an anchor: 68,000 is almost 70,000 which is twice as bad as 35,000.

Motivated reasoning is a fourth factor, whereby people attach undue weight to evidence that supports a position they hold, and correspondingly insufficient weight to evidence that does not. In this regard, Professor Mokdar has stated in interviews (cited above) that from the first, he and his team have thought that the total number of deaths would not exceed 100,000.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hershshefrin/2020/04/18/what-makes-the-covid-19-mortality-forecasts-upo... 

Honored Social Butterfly

I notice they mention that demand for hospital services is expected to exceed capacity.  Somehow the regressives missed that part. 

 

Referenced in a White House press briefing as the "Chris Murray Model," IHME’s COVID-19 projections show demand for hospital services in each state. The demand for these services is expected to exceed capacity. Please send questions to covid19@healthdata.org.

Honored Social Butterfly

The estimate is lower because we've been doing what we were supposed to be doing.  Staying home. 

 

Honored Social Butterfly

William, Trump Cult members search far and wide for ways to make their hero look better. Even though nobody knows how severe this pandemic will turn out, Trump Lovers are doing everything they can to make it appear or feel less severe than it really is. 

Honored Social Butterfly

So 60,000 deaths in trump's world is acceptable? Especially since trump is responsible for a great portion of them. 

And the model is only a "guesstimate". 
Or is this a guaranteed number? Many areas will get further increased numbers, especially states which did not inact restrictions. 

And if trump and repub governors open up too soon, who will guarantee that there will be no rebound effect. 

trump has no plan, but is responsible!

And where is the testing he promised everyone could get?

Honored Social Butterfly


@williamb39198 wrote:

trump has no plan, but is responsible!

And where is the testing he promised everyone could get?


So odd.  The No.1 problem tracking the virus has been lack of testing.  AND THAT is rump's plan.  Lots and lots of tests will PROVE the economy is safe.  HOW is that to be implemented.  He'll break into his stash?  Will he have reasons now to finally share more 'stuff' with the states?

 

Meanwhile, people who are not bat s diabolically crazy will continue keeping their distance from dt's misfiring brain cells until he is put away at last.   

Honored Social Butterfly

oceanflower posted...

@williamb39198 wrote:
trump has no plan, but is responsible!

And where is the testing he promised everyone could get?

So odd. The No.1 problem tracking the virus has been lack of testing. AND THAT is rump's plan. Lots and lots of tests will PROVE the economy is safe. HOW is that to be implemented. He'll break into his stash? Will he have reasons now to finally share more 'stuff' with the states?

Meanwhile, people who are not bat s diabolically crazy will continue keeping their distance from dt's misfiring brain cells until he is put away at last.

=======================================================

Trump released his three part plan....pass it on.

Testing is a problem. Do you have a answer for that problem? I do not. The task force is working no it.

Keeping 6 feet away is what is being recommended.
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@KidBoy2 wrote:

Trump released his three part plan....pass it on.

Testing is a problem. Do you have a answer for that problem? I do not. The task force is working no it.

Keeping 6 feet away is what is being recommended.

Yes, the Trump administration really screwed the pooch on testing. WHO would have made their kits available to the U.S. had they realized the moron was turning us into a third world country. ITYS

Honored Social Butterfly

@KidBoy2 
That was not all from my post, but still appropriate. The point that you are missing...testing, testing, testing is the key...always has been, always will be until there is a cure or a vaccine. 
And trump has been criminal by not enacting the testing which is needed, and he has not provided...then he says that states are responsible for what should be a federal policy and program...this is a national crisis, and not just occurring in one or two states. 

No plan, and where are the tests, trump?

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