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Re: The Memo: Dems grapple with Trump’s resilience

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One point that gets overlooked is that these data depict opinions of self-reporting Republicans. And the numbers of registered Republicans have been dropping steading over the past decade. 

 

Which, of course, is why the party focused so hard on gerrymandering and voter suppression over the last 10 years. Gotta steal elections if you can't win 'em legally.

 

 

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The Memo: Dems grapple with Trump’s resilience

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Real, long time Republicans are grappling with the turbulence resulting from the Cult Leader getting the overwhelming majority of his party to reverse themselves on long-term Republican Core values. Trump's cult members no longer defend:

  • NATO
  • Law Enforcement
  • The Justice Department
  • The EEU
  • Free Trade
  • Lowering the Deficit
  • Our Allies, such as Canada

Vladimir is now someone Trump Supporters admire.

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Re: The Memo: Dems grapple with Trump’s resilience

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President Donald Trump has hit his highest ever approval rating at 41.9 percent between April and June, according to the latest Gallup poll.

 

The new-all time personal best displays President Trump’s approval rating rose over two-percent from the previous quarter’s 39.1 percent average and beat his first three-month average of 41.3 percent.

Gallup says President Trump’s approval rating maintained at least a 40 percent average between April 20 and July 19, hitting 45 percent in the same week as the historic June 12 summit with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un on Singapore’s Sentosa Island.

 

Intense criticism from both Republicans and Democrats over President Trump dismissal of Russian election meddling during the 2016 election in a joint press conference with President Vladimir Putin failed to impact Mr. Trump’s 42 percent approval rating between July 16-22.

 

Gallup conducted the poll surveying 19,414 adults between April 23 and July 22. The Washington, D.C.-based research firm estimates the margin of error is plus or minus one percent. Gallup joins the Wall Street Journal and NBC News in publishing data that shows President Trump has hit his highest approval rating ever.

 

“Mr. Trump’s job approval rating rose to 45% in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, the highest mark of his presidency and up 1 percentage point from June, reports the Journal. “The survey was taken over a four-day period that started July 15, a day before Mr. Trump’s news conference with Mr. Putin in which he questioned the conclusion of U.S. intelligence agencies that Russia meddled in the 2016 election.”

 

The WSJ/NBC poll states 88% of Republican voters approve of President Trump’s job performance.

 

https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/07/24/gallup-donald-trump-hits-his-highest-approval-ev...

 

 

 

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Re: The Memo: Dems grapple with Trump’s resilience

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John Gotti was the Teflon Don and Trump is the Teflon President. We have heard more about his paying off a Playboy model than we have of his meeting with Putin.  Still the Republican base gives him an 88% favourable  rating. Of course, the base is only 30% of registered voters. Meanwhile 54% of all voters believe he caved to Putin. 

 

Yes, he is resilient with his base but they would vote for John Gotti if he were the Republican candidate for president.  Let's see how he does with the independents he continues to lose. 

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The Memo: Dems grapple with Trump’s resilience

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President Trump's approval rating is largely unchanged in the first polls to emerge after his widely criticized performance at last week’s joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin — and Democrats are scratching their heads.

 

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on Sunday showed Trump’s approval rating rising to 45 percent, his highest level in that poll since taking office. And an Economist/YouGov survey showed no significant deviation from Trump’s numbers the previous week.

 

The polls included some responses before and some after Trump’s July 16 news conference with Putin in Helsinki, meaning it’s possible that a more pronounced negative impact could show up in the next wave of polls. But there is no evidence of such an effect so far.

 

Democratic explanations for Trump’s resiliency encompass several factors: the strength of the economy; his voters’ tendency to discount negative press coverage as a product of the “fake news media”; and the visceral connection he enjoys with his base, partly because of his willingness to press cultural hot buttons relating to race, immigration and related issues.


But Democrats also argue that Trump’s base is not big enough to bring sustained electoral success, either in November’s midterm elections or in his 2020 reelection race.

 

Robert Shrum, a Democratic strategist who has worked at a senior level of several presidential campaigns, said pundits were failing to emphasize how Trump’s approval ratings have been low by historical standards.

 

“If another president had these numbers, his political people would be very worried about it,” Shrum said. “He only cares about his base and, if you look at polls in general, they are in deep trouble for the 2018 election.”

 

Different findings even within the same polls can lead to very different conclusions, however.

In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, for example, the share of Americans who said they strongly approve of Trump, 29 percent, was far outweighed by the 44 percent who strongly disapprove.

That should mean Democrats can expect much greater intensity among their base — a factor that could be vital since Democratic-leaning voting blocs tend to turn out less reliably in midterm elections than in presidential contests.

 

On the other hand, the same poll showed that the Democrats’ lead in the so-called generic ballot — where voters nationwide are asked which party they would prefer to control Congress — had shrunk to 6 percentage points. This is a notable slippage from the 10-point advantage the party enjoyed just a month before.

 

To some observers, that calls into question the idea of a “blue wave” that might sweep Democrats into power in the House or the Senate after November — even if few independent voices back the president’s claim, made on Twitter last month, that there might be a “Red Wave” for Republicans instead.

 

Among Democrats, there is a continued faith that things will go their way in November. 

Tad Devine, who served as a senior adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) 2016 presidential campaign, said he believed a takeover of both the House and Senate was a real possibility for Democrats. 

 

“The intensity is there. Democratic voters are paying a lot more attention, they are a lot more interested in participating,” Devine said. He added that the party did not need to adopt a one-size-fits-all approach to framing the election.

 

“It’s not some big single message,” he said. “We have candidates who are different, unique — what kind of race do we want to run in each district?”

 

Many Democrats also emphasize the significant swath of the voting public that appears alienated — perhaps permanently — from Trump. 

 

His polarizing approach, they say, makes him more enemies than friends. The effect could be to the detriment of his party.

 

Referring to Trump’s conduct during the news conference with Putin, and in the days afterward, Democratic strategist Joe Trippi said, “The 55 or 56 percent who say they disapprove of him? I think this really locks that in … This last nine, 10 days or so makes it much tougher for a Republican candidate for Congress to pull them back.”

 

Opinions diverge as to why Trump himself commands such strong loyalty from his base of support.

 

Shrum argued that the economic factors were much less relevant than other, gut-level responses.

“I just think there is a deep emotional investment in him by a shrinking Republican Party,” Shrum said, “He speaks to the politics of resentment, he speaks to the anxieties — though I think his remedies are absurd — of people who think they have been left behind, and so they don’t want to give up on him.”

Devine argued that the strong economy played its part as “protective armor” for Trump — but he asserted that an anti-media reflex is also part of the picture.

 

“Usually the battles are between the Democrats and the Republicans, but in Trump’s case it is himself and the press,” he said. “That’s the battle, and he is delivering these messages to people in his base, and they are responding to it.”

 

Devine also asserted that support for Trump was more complicated than the headline figures from a poll suggest.

 

Research from focus groups or voter interviews, he asserted, would reveal “they don’t really like the way Trump has handled himself but they also think he is being attacked unfairly and all this other stuff.”

For the moment, however, the idea of a Trump collapse looks increasingly unrealistic, at least in the short term.

 

That’s giving his opponents, as well as his supporters, plenty of food for thought.

 

http://thehill.com/homenews/the-memo/398471-the-memo-dems-grapple-with-trumps-resilience

 

 

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