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Honored Social Butterfly

Sorry, conservatives. Trump isn’t going to get a surge in black voters.

Sorry, conservatives. Trump isn’t going to get a surge in black voters.

 

Some conservatives and the Trump campaign now contend President Trump’s reelection will be fueled with a dramatic increase in black support. The bulk of the evidence, however, shows this remains more wish than fact.

 

Blacks have been the most solidly Democratic demographic bloc for decades. Polls show that Republican presidential candidates rarely get more than 10 percent of their votes. Trump did not break that pattern in 2016, with estimates of his black support ranging between 6 percent and 8 percent.

 

Republicans know that these abysmal figures constitute a huge head wind against any chance for Trump’s reelection. Blacks compose significant shares of the voting population in the key swing states of Florida, North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Even Wisconsin’s small black population could be decisive given how finely balanced that state is. Increase Trump’s share of the black vote to even as low as 15 percent, and Democratic chances of winning the electoral college become very low.

 

As a result, many Trump backers have seized on anecdotal or cherry-picked evidence to show such a surge is happening. They note that some polls show Trump’s job approval rating among blacks to be as high as 34 percent, while others contend Trump’s support from high-profile blacks such as Kanye West is helping him make inroads. A new book — “Coming Home: How Black Americans Will Re-Elect Trump” — making the conservative rounds argues that Trump received 21 percent of the black vote in Pennsylvania in 2016, and that he will receive 15 percent to 20 percent of that vote in 2020. Conservatives desperately want to believe this is true, and thus all too credulously accept these claims as fact.

 

Here’s what the facts really show: Trump’s job approval rating among blacks averages a mere 13.3 percent in three of the most recent polls that release breakdowns by race. Trump received an average of only 9 percent of the black vote against Joe Biden in surveys in four key swing states conducted by the New York Times and Siena College in November. And a recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll of blacks found Trump’s position to be even worse. This poll is the only recent public poll that interviewed only black voters, and thus has a lower margin of error for them than the other polls mentioned above. It found Trump had only a 7 percent job approval rating and gave him only 4 percent of the vote against Biden.

 

Trump supporters should also review some facts about polling methodology. A poll’s margin of error is based on the number of people polled as compared with the number of people in the population being sampled. The margin of error for an entire poll, however, does not apply to the totals for any subgroup data within that poll. The margins of error for subgroups are much higher than for the overall poll because the number of people being sampled, as compared with the subgroup’s population, is much smaller. Thus, a poll that has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent will have a significantly higher margin of error for any data reported about the black population.

 

These error margins can be extremely high when you look at the actual numbers of blacks sampled in any given poll. Only 186 blacks were included in one poll that gave Trump a 34 percent job approval rating among blacks. The margin of error for that sample size is between 7 percent and 8 percent, and even that is only within a 95 percent confidence level. The subtotal figure will likely be wrong 5 percent of the time even if the poll was conducted perfectly.

 

That likely explains why the Pennsylvania poll cited in the book “Coming Home” was off. That poll had an overall margin of error of 1.89 percent, but the margin of error for the black subpopulation of about 320 respondents was closer to 6 percent. The Pennsylvania exit poll gave Trump only 7 percent of their votes. That figure is amply supported by a review of precinct data from heavily black areas, which show Trump receiving extremely low shares of the vote. The book’s authors, Verne Robinson III and Bruce Eberle, argue that most black voters don’t live in these areas. But even middle-class black areas such as Cheltenham Township in the Philadelphia suburbs gave Trump much less than 21 percent, and usually less than 5 percent, of the vote.

 

The Trump campaign’s efforts to highlight the strong economy and his important criminal-justice reform are worthwhile and could make an impact. Even small increases in his black vote share could be decisive in an extremely close election. A campaign as flush with money as his can afford to fight for every conceivable vote. Republicans nonetheless need to accept Trump is unlikely to bring them so quickly to the promised land.

 

Sorry, conservatives. Trump isn’t going to get a surge in black voters. 


"FAKE 45 #illegitimate" read a sign at the Woman's March in DC, 1/27/2017
Honored Social Butterfly

How can an orange faced white guy who said that there are "fine people" in the KKK possibly expect to get the Black vote ?


Man learns from history that man learns nothing from history.
Honored Social Butterfly

Ask black folks.

Libs are nuttier than squirrel poop
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@Fishslayer777 wrote:
Ask black folks.

No need, some are just placated by their "1 out of 5" belief and consider that a success.


"FAKE 45 #illegitimate" read a sign at the Woman's March in DC, 1/27/2017
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Honored Social Butterfly

Trump and his Republican minions predict a surge in black voter support yet they do all they can to suppress black people from voting!

DUMP TRUMP AND DITCH MITCH TO MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!
Honored Social Butterfly

I'm not a big "poll" person, but I have no way of knowing what a whole segment of the population is thinking or believing. 

 

 

In November, two polls found that President Trump’s approval rating among black likely voters had reached 34%. An Emerson poll found that Trump has a 34.5% approval rating among black likely voters and a Rasmussen poll found that number was 34%.
Both polls provide an obvious contradiction to the media narrative about President Trump appealing to “racists,” hence why neither got a second of airtime on CNN or MSNBC. 

 

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/july_2019/trump_support_up...


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@Fishslayer777 wrote:

I'm not a big "poll" person, but I have no way of knowing what a whole segment of the population is thinking or believing. A "big poll person" would have a way of knowing what a whole segment of population may think.....

 

In November, two polls found that President Trump’s approval rating among black likely voters had reached 34%. An Emerson poll found that Trump has a 34.5% approval rating among black likely voters and a Rasmussen poll found that number was 34%.  A "big poll person" would know that approval doesn't equate to will vote for.....

 

A "big poll person" would rarely cite much of all from Rasmussen......just saying.....


"FAKE 45 #illegitimate" read a sign at the Woman's March in DC, 1/27/2017
Honored Social Butterfly

Interesting isn't this...

trump received 8% support from black voters in 2016, and now has 34% support??

Who in their wildest imagination is trying to make us believe this! Or did they only poll Ben Carson, the AfAm Senator from SC, and the wacko AfAm Sheriff that supports trump!

Or has trump petitioned the NAACP for their endorsement...have not heard of any endorsement of this sort. 

Honored Social Butterfly


@williamb39198 wrote:

Interesting isn't this...Interesting?  Indeed!

 

trump received 8% support from black voters in 2016, and now has 34% support??  Very unlikely for sure.  Somebody is smoking crack....

 

Who in their wildest imagination is trying to make us believe this! Or did they only poll Ben Carson, the AfAm Senator from SC, and the wacko AfAm Sheriff that supports trump!

 

Or has trump petitioned the NAACP for their endorsement...have not heard of any endorsement of this sort. He's doing his best to go after the black vote as it is an area where there is much opportunity.  As you accurately said, William, he only received 8% of the black vote in 2016....he won't do well with women, regardless of race, he won't do well with college educated people, Dems, or Independents.  So the black vote is one of the few opportunities for him.  But it sure wouldn't hurt to start telling the truth and come clean about the economy.  He isn't the cause as he claims, many blacks understand who deserves credit for turning around the Bush economy, and it sure wasn't the do nothing GOP in Congress.....


 


"FAKE 45 #illegitimate" read a sign at the Woman's March in DC, 1/27/2017
Honored Social Butterfly

Van Jones thinks this is something for the dimms to be concerned about...  I think he is right.


What have the dimms delivered on for the black community?

 

The real poll will be taken in November...  Time will tell!

 

 

 

 

VIMTSTL
Honored Social Butterfly

yes it will, and don't forget Jim 80% of blacks think Trump is racist. Ooops!!! You have much work to do before "winning over" the black vote, LOL!!
Honored Social Butterfly

Van Jones can say whatever he likes...but trump shows the black community no respect...or do you not remember how trump recognized "his"

black at one of his get togethers?
..."his" black!

No wonder that some of the original slave states love trump. 

Honored Social Butterfly


@jimc91 wrote:

Van Jones thinks this is something for the dimms to be concerned about...  I think he is right.


What have the dimms delivered on for the black community?

 

CHiPs, Medicaid Expansion, proposing gun control, Roe vs. Wade. Death Penalty for Dylan Roof;  not supporting White Supremacy like dump (sic) and Conservatives do.....do I REALLY need to go on or can we expect dump (sic) and his supporters to actually think objectively and not spew the chum?

 

What have Conservatives/The Cult done to EVER support the black community?


"FAKE 45 #illegitimate" read a sign at the Woman's March in DC, 1/27/2017
Honored Social Butterfly


@Centristsin2010 wrote:

@jimc91 wrote:

Van Jones thinks this is something for the dimms to be concerned about...  I think he is right.


What have the dimms delivered on for the black community?

 

 

 

What have Conservatives done to EVER support the black community?


Glad you asked...

 

President Trump is making a big play for black voters, who overwhelmingly rejected him in 2016.

“The White House is making a very concentrated effort to go after black voters, and I talk to people in the administration about this,” said Rob Smith, a contributor to Turning Point USA, a nonprofit which focuses on GOP advocacy on college campuses. Smith, a black, gay veteran who is backing the billionaire, says his community is going to vote based on results.

 

“People who either did not vote for Trump in 2016 or did not vote at all may be pulling the lever for him in 2020. I am one of those people,” said Smith.

 

Smith cited legislation like the First Step Act — President Trump’s signature criminal justice reform bill which creates an opportunity for thousands of federal prisoners to earn an early release — as well as opportunity zones to spur investment in poor, often minority-dominated communities, as proof the president’s promises were more than just empty words.

 

In November the campaign launched “Black Voices for Trump” with an advisory board that include performers Diamond and Silk and former presidential candidate Herman Cain.

 

The group is dedicated to nurturing activists, registering new voters and firing up the faithful. Outreach events and voter contact trainings have already been held in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia, reps for the organization told The Post.

 

There is also Trump’s eyebrow-raising friendship with superstar musician Kanye West.

And it all may be having an effect. New data from Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll found Trump’s job approval rating now at 22% with Zogby Analytics finding the same. The numbers are up considerably since a Quinnipiac poll found only 2% of black votersapproved of Trump’s job performance in 2017.

 

“The Trump campaign can encourage black voters by doing policies and programs and reaching out to them on mediums that they read and listen to,” Bruce Eberle, a GOP political consultant and co-author of the new book “COMING HOME: How Black American Will Re-Elect Trump,” told The Post, chalking up the party’s decades-long unpopularity among blacks to communications failure.

“The black church is the most powerful thing in the black community and on cultural issues black voters are more conservative than white voters. Every poll shows that,” he said.

 

Still the work won’t be easy. In 2016, President Trump received just 8% of the vote from black voters. The campaign was dogged by accusations of racism. During President Obama’s time in office, Trump was the most prominent backer of the “birther” movement, which falsely claimed the president was born in Kenya. In 1989 Trump publicly called for New York to resume capital punishment after five black and Latino men were convicted of raping a jogger in Central Park (the convictions were overturned in 2002.)

 

Nevertheless, Eberle predicted Trump could run up his numbers nationally among black voters to as high as 17%, with even greater margins in the swing states. “Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia. The black voters there, if you reach out to them, you can win 25% of the vote,” he said.

 

The 2020 outreach effort is already well underway.

 

Trump’s Super Bowl ad was dedicated entirely to criminal justice reform and the president’s decision to commute the sentence of Alice Marie Johnson — a black woman who spent 21 years behind bars for her non-violent supporting role in a cocaine trafficking ring. “I want to thank President Donald John Trump,” a tearful Johnson says, as her friends cheer her.

 

At his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump repeatedly singled out black audience members for praise, including a 100-year-old former Tuskegee Airman, an Army vet recovering from drug addiction and a young girl who was granted a scholarship to escape her failing school.

“Warning to Democrats: what [Trump] was saying to African Americans can be effective,” political commentator Van Jones told CNN.

 

“We’ve got to wake up, folks. There’s a whole bubble thing that goes on,” Jones, who is black, continued. “I think what you’re going to see him do: ‘You may not like my rhetoric, but look at my results and my record for black people.’ If he narrow casts that, it’s going to be effective.”

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Marie Johnson would disagree with you @Centristsin2010 ...

 

 

 

VIMTSTL
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@jimc91 wrote:

@Centristsin2010 wrote:

@jimc91 wrote:

 

 

 

 

What have Conservatives done to EVER support the black community?


Glad you asked...

 

President Trump is making a big play for black voters, who overwhelmingly rejected him in 2016.  So?  He was overwhelmingly rejected and the administration and Repugs have spit on Michael Steele when he said the Repug Party needed to expand the tent....nope, they just wanted the old white guys.....

 

“The White House is making a very concentrated effort to go after black voters, and I talk to people in the administration about this,” said Rob Smith, a contributor to Turning Point USA, a nonprofit which focuses on GOP advocacy on college campuses. Smith, a black, gay veteran who is backing the billionaire, says his community is going to vote based on results.  Yep, now they are trying.....

 

“People who either did not vote for Trump in 2016 or did not vote at all may be pulling the lever for him in 2020. I am one of those people,” said Smith.  Well, that will double his support if Smith pulls the lever.....ha ha ha.....Thanks Jim for proving my point....

 

Smith cited legislation like the First Step Act — President Trump’s signature criminal justice reform bill which creates an opportunity for thousands of federal prisoners to earn an early release — as well as opportunity zones to spur investment in poor, often minority-dominated communities, as proof the president’s promises were more than just empty words.  LMAO!  It wasn't even trumps idea, he didn't campaign on it.....little does Jim, trump and Smith know it was Obama's idea and pushed by the ACLU.  Again, Jim and trump want to take credit for an Obama idea....

 

In November the campaign launched “Black Voices for Trump” with an advisory board that include performers Diamond and Silk and former presidential candidate Herman Cain.

 

The group is dedicated to nurturing activists, registering new voters and firing up the faithful. Outreach events and voter contact trainings have already been held in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia, reps for the organization told The Post.

 

There is also Trump’s eyebrow-raising friendship with superstar musician Kanye West.

And it all may be having an effect. New data from Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll found Trump’s job approval rating now at 22% with Zogby Analytics finding the same. The numbers are up considerably since a Quinnipiac poll found only 2% of black votersapproved of Trump’s job performance in 2017.

 

“The Trump campaign can encourage black voters by doing policies and programs and reaching out to them on mediums that they read and listen to,” Bruce Eberle, a GOP political consultant and co-author of the new book “COMING HOME: How Black American Will Re-Elect Trump,” told The Post, chalking up the party’s decades-long unpopularity among blacks to communications failure.

“The black church is the most powerful thing in the black community and on cultural issues black voters are more conservative than white voters. Every poll shows that,” he said.

 

Still the work won’t be easy. In 2016, President Trump received just 8% of the vote from black voters. The campaign was dogged by accusations of racism. During President Obama’s time in office, Trump was the most prominent backer of the “birther” movement, which falsely claimed the president was born in Kenya. In 1989 Trump publicly called for New York to resume capital punishment after five black and Latino men were convicted of raping a jogger in Central Park (the convictions were overturned in 2002.)

 

Nevertheless, Eberle predicted Trump could run up his numbers nationally among black voters to as high as 17%, with even greater margins in the swing states. “Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia. The black voters there, if you reach out to them, you can win 25% of the vote,” he said.

 

The 2020 outreach effort is already well underway.

 

Trump’s Super Bowl ad was dedicated entirely to criminal justice reform and the president’s decision to commute the sentence of Alice Marie Johnson — a black woman who spent 21 years behind bars for her non-violent supporting role in a cocaine trafficking ring. “I want to thank President Donald John Trump,” a tearful Johnson says, as her friends cheer her.

 

At his State of the Union address on Tuesday, Trump repeatedly singled out black audience members for praise, including a 100-year-old former Tuskegee Airman, an Army vet recovering from drug addiction and a young girl who was granted a scholarship to escape her failing school.

“Warning to Democrats: what [Trump] was saying to African Americans can be effective,” political commentator Van Jones told CNN.

 

“We’ve got to wake up, folks. There’s a whole bubble thing that goes on,” Jones, who is black, continued. “I think what you’re going to see him do: ‘You may not like my rhetoric, but look at my results and my record for black people.’ If he narrow casts that, it’s going to be effective.”

 

Gee, like you, I'm so glad I asked too.  All current activities because trump has been behind the 8 ball.....he just woke up, like the GOP.....get back to us when you can list Conservative programs for minorities....like trump, most Conservatives didn't have a clue they are Americans.....how many blacks have been removed from the voting rolls this year?  It'll be tough for them to vote for trump.....LOL!


"FAKE 45 #illegitimate" read a sign at the Woman's March in DC, 1/27/2017
Honored Social Butterfly

Black voters historically do not vote, if there's no candidate they like... they just stay home. I believe in the end, (on election day) around 20% will vote for president Trump in 2020.

just a guess, 'cause my crystal ball is cloudy. .. but it's getting clearer every day.

Libs are nuttier than squirrel poop
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@Fishslayer777 wrote:
Black voters historically do not vote, if there's no candidate they like... they just stay home. I believe in the end, (on election day) around 20% will vote for president Trump in 2020.

just a guess, 'cause my crystal ball is cloudy. .. but it's getting clearer every day.

I agree with you that crystal ball is cloudy, but I think it will not get clearer.

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You like crow? making a list, checking it twice, gonna find out when y'all roll the dice....

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Honored Social Butterfly

Who ever believed Trump would get any significant portion of the black vote?

 

These guys maybe.

ADAB3277-04CC-4503-A30E-FFC9EEBCC5FE.jpeg

 

Esteemed Social Butterfly


@ManicProgressive wrote:

Who ever believed Trump would get any significant portion of the black vote?

 

These guys maybe.

ADAB3277-04CC-4503-A30E-FFC9EEBCC5FE.jpeg

 


hrrmmm No doubt we'll see these same men in "Lesbians For Trump" t-shirts next week. smh

 

 

http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/statements/byruling/false/ (13 pages of lies and growing)
Honored Social Butterfly


@ManicProgressive wrote:

Who ever believed Trump would get any significant portion of the black vote?

 

These guys maybe.

ADAB3277-04CC-4503-A30E-FFC9EEBCC5FE.jpeg

 


White Trash?  Indeed!


"FAKE 45 #illegitimate" read a sign at the Woman's March in DC, 1/27/2017
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