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Re: Oil plummets 30%

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@jimc91 wrote:

Amazing at the amount of market understanding on this board...  

 

I for one am very happy none of these folks are helping manage my portfolio.  

 

Consider talking to more people that are actively engaged in the actual market opposed to the ones you wish existed...

 

 


Not so amazing.  The problem is, to a primitive people, such a basic understanding  of why oil prices decline looks like magic. 

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Re: Oil plummets 30%

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@jimc91 wrote:

Amazing at the amount of market understanding on this board...  

 

I for one am very happy none of these folks are helping manage my portfolio.  

 

Consider talking to more people that are actively engaged in the actual market opposed to the ones you wish existed...

 

 


The OTHER Stock Markets did NOTHING in response to the CoronaVirus, but American markets all tanked like it was 2008.

 

What we all just witnessed was the collective belief by the men controlling the market that ToadPOTUS has not a chance in hell of avoiding a National Disaster, and that lil donny will lead us into a total disaster by his incompetence and egomania.

 

Not to worry Senior tRumpBots - donny will bungle this in a way that insures you will not survive the epidemic so no matter your portfolios get shredded - you won't be here to need them.

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Re: Oil plummets 30%

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Amazing at the amount of market understanding on this board...  

 

I for one am very happy none of these folks are helping manage my portfolio.  

 

Consider talking to more people that are actively engaged in the actual market opposed to the ones you wish existed...

 

 

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Re: Oil plummets 30%

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@Richva wrote:

@LouLit01 wrote:

So Trump's pal Putin has refused to cut oil production. Trump's buddy the murderous Saudi prince has refused to cut oil production, too. Maybe because they're both used to doing whatever the hell they want and neither respects Trump.

 

Oil demand is dropping fast because of the world-wide flu epidemic that Trump isn't worried about. This is threatening American oil production because our prices will be too high due to the cost of fracking. Fracking is causing massive environmental problems that Trump isn't worried about. All this is adding to the market dropping at record rates.

 

In the meantime we have Bernie the socialist squaring off against Biden the gaffe king who forgot what state he was in at one point.

 

I think what we need is some more 70+-year-old white guys running things.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


To be clear, oil is dropping because no one trusts the politicians to be able to get ahead of this crisis. This is especially true of Trump. 


No, I think I was clear the first time. Putin and the Saudis are having a price war because they can't agree on how much to cut production even though they have a treaty about production. 

 

"The kingdom and Russia came together to form the so-called OPEC+ alliance in 2016 after oil prices plunged to $30 a barrel. Since then, the two leading exporters have orchestrated supply cuts of 2.1 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia wanted to increase that number to 3.6 million barrels through 2020 to take account of weaker consumption.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin, worried about ceding too much ground to American oil producers, refused to go along with the plan and his energy minister, Alexander Novak on Friday signaled a fierce battle to come for market share when he said countries could produce as much as they please from April 1.
Why did Saudi launch a price war?
 
Simmering differences over how best to manage global oil markets spilled into the open at a meeting between OPEC and Russia in Vienna on Friday. After Russia said it was ditching the alliance, Saudi Arabia warned it would live to regret the decision, sources who attended the meeting told CNN Business."
 
Of course no one trusts Trump but the Russia/Opec battle would be on anyway. One difference is that before Trump we had respected diplomats who would be shuttling between Moscow and Riyadh negotiating a peace. But we have no one of that stature left to speak for us.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Re: Oil plummets 30%

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@LouLit01 wrote:

So Trump's pal Putin has refused to cut oil production. Trump's buddy the murderous Saudi prince has refused to cut oil production, too. Maybe because they're both used to doing whatever the hell they want and neither respects Trump.

 

Oil demand is dropping fast because of the world-wide flu epidemic that Trump isn't worried about. This is threatening American oil production because our prices will be too high due to the cost of fracking. Fracking is causing massive environmental problems that Trump isn't worried about. All this is adding to the market dropping at record rates.

 

In the meantime we have Bernie the socialist squaring off against Biden the gaffe king who forgot what state he was in at one point.

 

I think what we need is some more 70+-year-old white guys running things.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


To be clear, oil is dropping because no one trusts the politicians to be able to get ahead of this crisis. This is especially true of Trump. 

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Re: Oil plummets 30%

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So Trump's pal Putin has refused to cut oil production. Trump's buddy the murderous Saudi prince has refused to cut oil production, too. Maybe because they're both used to doing whatever the hell they want and neither respects Trump.

 

Oil demand is dropping fast because of the world-wide flu epidemic that Trump isn't worried about. This is threatening American oil production because our prices will be too high due to the cost of fracking. Fracking is causing massive environmental problems that Trump isn't worried about. All this is adding to the market dropping at record rates.

 

In the meantime we have Bernie the socialist squaring off against Biden the gaffe king who forgot what state he was in at one point.

 

I think what we need is some more 70+-year-old white guys running things.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Re: Oil plummets 30%

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The plummeting price of oil is reflective of the decreased global demand. Russia refused to REDUCE production, it did not lower the price. The price was lowered by that pesky supply and demand curve.  Plummeting global demand is the result of greatly reduced economic activity throughout the world.  To claim this as a win for Trump and the regressives is watching the price of a cruise drop because of the coronavirus.  This....is....not....a....good.....thing. 

 

I usually enjoy giving the regressives a lesson in basic economics of capitalism but we all know Trump will continue to mismanage this crisis and it will be worse because of it.   Got testing kits?

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Oil plummets 30%

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Oil plummets 30% as OPEC deal failure sparks price war
PUBLISHED SUN, MAR 8 20206:03 PM EDTUPDATED 18 MIN AGO
 
 

 

“We believe the OPEC and Russia oil price war unequivocally started this weekend when Saudi Arabia aggressively cut the relative price at which it sells its crude by the most in at least 20 years,” Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin said in a note to clients Sunday. “The prognosis for the oil market is even more dire than in November 2014, when such a price war last started, as it comes to a head with the significant collapse in oil demand due to the coronavirus,” the firm added.

 

Goldman cut its second and third quarter Brent forecast to $30 per barrel, and said that prices could dip into the $20s.

 

Saudi Arabia’s price cut followed a breakdown of talks in Vienna last week. On Thursday, OPEC recommended additional production cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day starting in April and extending until the end of the year. But OPEC ally Russia rejected the additional cuts when the 14-member cartel and its allies, known as OPEC+, met on Friday.

 

The meeting also concluded with no directive about the production cuts that are currently in place but set to expire at the end of the month. This effectively means that nations will soon have free rein over how much they pump.

 

“As from 1 April we are starting to work without minding the quotas or reductions which were in place earlier,” Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters Friday at the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna, adding, “but this does not mean that each country would not monitor and analyze market developments.” 

 

Oil prices have already moved sharply lower this year as the coronavirus outbreak has led to softer demand for crude. A potential supply glut could pressure prices further.

 

“Both events – coronavirus and OPEC+ falling apart were not expected or priced into the market a month ago,” said Rebecca Babin, senior equity trader for CIBC Private Wealth Management. She said the key things to watch going forward are whether or not Saudi Arabia and Russia reach a “Hail Mary” deal, and if not, how quickly U.S. supply is shut in to support prices.

“There is still significant uncertainty, but the commodity market is not waiting around to find out if miracles can happen,” she added.

 

The unfolding of events is reminiscent of 2014 when Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S. competed for market share in the oil industry. As production escalated, prices plummeted. Some see prices heading back to those lows. 

 

″$20 oil in 2020 is coming,” Ali Khedery, formerly Exxon’s senior Middle East advisor and now CEO of U.S.-based strategy firm Dragoman Ventures, wrote Sunday on Twitter. “Huge geopolitical implications. Timely stimulus for net consumers. Catastrophic for failed/failing petro-kleptocracies Iraq, Iran, etc - may prove existential 1-2 punch when paired with COVID19.”

 

But others, including Eurasia Group, believe that Saudi Arabia and Russia will eventually come to an agreement. 

 

“The most likely outcome of the failure of the Vienna talks is a limited oil price war before the two sides agree on a new deal,” analysts led by Ayham Kamel said in a note to clients Sunday. The firm puts the chances of an eventual agreement at 60%. 

Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said Sunday that oil “has become a bigger problem for markets than the coronavirus,” but also said that he does not foresee prices falling to the Jan. 2016 lows. 

 

“Saudi Arabia can’t tolerate an oil depression – the country’s fiscal breakeven oil prices remains very high, Saudi Aramco is now a public company, and MBS’s grip on power isn’t yet absolute. As a result, the [government] won’t be so cavalier in sending oil back into the $30s (or even lower),” he said in a note to clients Sunday.

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plummets-30percent-as-opec-deal-failure-sparks-price-war-fears.h... 

 

 

 

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