Honored Social Butterfly

Models shift to predict dramatically more U.S. deaths

See, the thing about prediction models is that they change if you change the assumptions. The rosy (??) models all assumed states would mandate social distancing and keep it in place until June or later.  When that failed due to Trump pressure on GOP governors, it changes the predictions. Let's hope the models are a good way. So far, things have been worse than predicted.   



Models shift to predict dramatically more U.S. deaths as states relax social distancing
A key model favored by the White House nearly doubled its prediction to 134,000 fatalities by August. For the first time, Murray explained, the model is factoring in data from four different cell phone providers showing a major uptick in Americans’ going out in public.

This rise of mobility in the last week or 10 days is likely leading to an increase in transmission, he said.

Monday’s update is the fourth since the model debuted in late March. It’s been relied on by the White House in recent months because it presents a more optimistic forecast on health system capacity, cases and deaths than other experts have predicted.

Even with its latest forecast, the University of Washington model is still far more optimistic than a model developed by Johns Hopkins for CDC predicting as many as 3,000 deaths per day by June. 

Honored Social Butterfly

Poland has a FRACTION  of the number of infected in other large European Union nations.  

But the government was one of the bloc’s first to shut borders and shopping centers and ban mass gatherings, making election campaigning impossible.

Their REAL PRESIDENT had crisis -crossed the country and made television appearances at a border checkpoint, a hospital, a food bank and even the  oil group PKN Orlen SA’s new disinfectant line.

BUT the USA did not have that  kind of administrative  leadership....  in fact  we had   no kind of leadership to speak of at all.   Thereby we will be suffering the consequences of the never-elected by popular vote....impeached  Donald T RUMP   for year's to come.  



Honored Social Butterfly

manic:   Try following the USA Today page:


It breaks down the State Level pretty well.   


Hilarious / nah it is actually pathetic how donald has lied about this pandemic.   CNN has a timing article out today, but better than that is Jay Rosen's column:  

The plan is to have no plan "There is no genius there, only a damaged human being playing havoc with our lives."


The plan is to have no plan, to let daily deaths between one and three thousand become a normal thing, and then to create massive confusion about who is responsible— by telling the governors they’re in charge without doing what only the federal government can do, by fighting with the press when it shows up to be briefed, by fixing blame for the virus on China or some other foreign element, and by “flooding the zone with sh*t,” Steve Bannon’s phrase for overwhelming the system with disinformation, distraction, and denial, which boosts what economists call “search costs” for reliable intelligence.

And somehow the RW applauds destroying the US.  

PRO-LIFE is Affordable Healthcare for ALL .
Honored Social Butterfly

This is fascinating.  I was watching that model for weeks but stopped following it recently as its predictions went down significantly for Maryland.   Now it's back up a bit, but not much.  The new model shows no real change in our mobility. 

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Honored Social Butterfly

All should  keep in mind the reports out on what took place at the WH. They switched to reelection mode and Trumps campaign managers are now running the show. They have made the economy number one over ending the virus. They and he are willing to accept deaths as they feel it will help Trump win the election. That fits Trump to a T. He never has cared about anyone, or anything. He is for Trump. Fact is he has destroyed everyone one and everything that came into contact with him. That means you or I can die as Trump does not care as long as it helps him win. This is why the USA is now nothing more than a failed country. 

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