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Valued Social Butterfly
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Re: Manufacturing Index Contracts for the 1st Time In a Decade

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@CriticalThinking wrote:

There is one ominous long range sign after another indicating a possible recession is on the horizon. But don't tell Trump Cult members who still believe Trump is an economic genius. Of course they don't live in a world where facts and documentation matter.


I would take exception with the "ONE" in the above - the horizon is completely covered with omens of impending economic doom (perhaps that's why you said "one" - there's so many its hard to see where one ends and the next begins)

 

GM has more manufacturing capacity in China than they do in the US, so donny's latest TantRump about making them move production home is dumb even for ToadPOTUS. Looking for a market to replace China? Gee - where will we find a place with over a BILLION potential customers who can afford American made stuff? Norway?

 

Thinking the Toad Depression will get here NLT Dec 2019 when we'll see how donny handles all the unemployment claims and loss of tax revenue from a tanking economy he is 100% responsible for creating.

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Manufacturing Index Contracts for the 1st Time In a Decade

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There is one ominous long range sign after another indicating a possible recession is on the horizon. But don't tell Trump Cult members who still believe Trump is an economic genius. Of course they don't live in a world where facts and documentation matter.

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Re: Manufacturing Index Contracts for the 1st Time In a Decade

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SHHHH - don't tell G, some of the stocks they were trying to sell as "growth" are down today as Donald is whining and distracting from the overall Market and economics of the nation.    G should comprehend that cherry picking a couple of stocks just makes them look silly.  

 

Donald in his "ultimate wisdom" decided that he would demand that US corporations quit manufacturing stuff in China.  

 

dek

PRO-LIFE is Affordable Healthcare for ALL .
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Valued Social Butterfly
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Re: Manufacturing Index Contracts for the 1st Time In a Decade

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Retailers have "weathered" tRumps Infantile tariffs only because they've been able to pass the entire cost on to the consumer. My bet is consumers tried to stock up on must-haves befor donny raised the price again, and nobody in the bottom 90% is buying anything in the "nice to have" category. Since Reagan's taxscam has continued to keep all income gains in the top 10%, and they are not going to increase consumption simply because they already have all they want. Consumer demand, which drives 60% of our economy, has begun a long, deep nosedive that won't end until tRump and his Republican supporters are expurgated from Government.

 

The GOPerLords know this and are making appropriate reductions in industrial output, further reducing middle class income and deepening the dive. Wall Street has already signaled their belief in a new recession by inverting bond yeilds and discounting stock prices. Conversion of family homes into rentals after the jrbush Great Recession has reduced availability and driven up prices, killing demand for new homes and will very soon drop the sales for DIY retailers like Lowes and Home Depot.

 

The dupes who thought tRump was on their side are about to get their reward for such stupidity - real shame the rest of the bottom 90% will have to come along for the ride down.

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Re: Manufacturing Index Contracts for the 1st Time In a Decade

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@GailL1 wrote:

The Retail sector seems to be doing fine - GREAT for many - except for the ones that have been in trouble for a long time ( JC Penny / Macy, etc )

WAPO 08/21/2019 - Solid earnings from major US retailers drive stocks higher

 

Target and Lowes surged yesterday and Home Depot rose the day before on better than expected profits.  These retailers as well as Walmart are adjusting to the tariffs.

 

Manufacturing has a more global implication - we already know that many parts of the world are really slowing down. 

 

I found this editorial by Paul Krugman to be very interesting about Germany - their problems today and how they should overcome it.

NYT 08/21/2019 - Paul Krugman - The world economy has a Germany problem

 

We cannot control how other countries deal with their economic downturns - run debt or not run debt.  Ecomonic management of a country seems to be a philisophical guess at best.  We just have to protect ourselves from unsavory policies which they may use which do affect us.


That's good that Target and Lowes and Walmart are having good retail days and it is a good thing they are weathering the tariffs... for now, but for how much longer as more tariffs on more goods get ready to ramp up?   Both CNBC and the Washington Post report that the contraction of the manufacturing index is due mostly to Trump's 'easy-to-win' trade war.  You don't think that eventually a decrease in manufacturing won't affect other industries and employment and ultimately, affect consumer spending here in the US?  Not just Germany.  Not just China. 



    

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Re: Manufacturing Index Contracts for the 1st Time In a Decade

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@GailL1 wrote:

@Olderscout66 

 

Think you better hone up on more current global news -  They have been headed towards a recession for many months - did you read the Paul Klugman NYT articles?

CNBC 08/20/2019 - TIMELINE-Germany could soon bury its ‘black zero’ budget rule

 

The (German) Federal Statistics Office releases gross domestic product figures for the third quarter. This shows if the German economy has managed to avoid a recession over the summer.

Germany’s export-reliant economy shrank by 0.1% on the quarter from April to June, and another quarter of contraction would be viewed as a technical recession.


Germans are justifiably terrified of runaway inflation foist on them by the US, and they realize we have elected an idiot as President.

 

Should it appear that they will lose export markets in the US because of tariffs, my bet is they will offer discounts to other customers and see if they can grab some of the ANNUAL 4-MILLION car market GM now has in China and move on knowing the US is no longer a reliable partner in anything. They could even expell our military and "foreclose" our bases giving them the off-set payments (around $40Million/year) they've been making to the US to improve their military hardware and develop their own Nukes - probably take them a couple months.

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Re: Manufacturing Index Contracts for the 1st Time In a Decade

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@Olderscout66 

 

Think you better hone up on more current global news -  They have been headed towards a recession for many months - did you read the Paul Klugman NYT articles?

CNBC 08/20/2019 - TIMELINE-Germany could soon bury its ‘black zero’ budget rule

 

The (German) Federal Statistics Office releases gross domestic product figures for the third quarter. This shows if the German economy has managed to avoid a recession over the summer.

Germany’s export-reliant economy shrank by 0.1% on the quarter from April to June, and another quarter of contraction would be viewed as a technical recession.

* * * * It's Always Something . . . Roseanne Roseannadanna
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Re: Manufacturing Index Contracts for the 1st Time In a Decade

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Do not confuse retali with manufacturing.

 

Stores have stuff to sell NOW and are selling it, but the drop in manufacturing says this will not last, so we're making less because those retail outlets have reduced their orders for new stuff.

 

If the Ditz in Chief rachets up his moronic trade wars, we'll lose foreign markets just like the concentration of income at the top has throttled domestic consumption.

 

Germany suffered from US caused inflation that destroyed their economy and put Adolf Hitler in power. They are NOT going down that road ever again.

 

Right now Germany is running "budget surpluses" like we did for 2 years under Bill Clinton.

 

Their "social safety net" was NOT reduced, it just didn't continue to grow, so Germans are still awash in socialist style benefits WITHOUT a socialist Government - they still have full retirement at 62, tuition free college, highly subsidized rail travel, 100% health care coverage, 24 days paid leave (for fulltime, temps and trainees) 18 holidays, 14 WEEKS of Maternity leave, unlimited personal paid sick days and 14 days paid leave for a sick child.

 

Next time some GOPer tries to tell you American Companies cannot afford to improve worker compensation, ask them why our business leaders as so much dumber than their German counterparts who have been doing it for generations.

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Re: Manufacturing Index Contracts for the 1st Time In a Decade

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The Retail sector seems to be doing fine - GREAT for many - except for the ones that have been in trouble for a long time ( JC Penny / Macy, etc )

WAPO 08/21/2019 - Solid earnings from major US retailers drive stocks higher

 

Target and Lowes surged yesterday and Home Depot rose the day before on better than expected profits.  These retailers as well as Walmart are adjusting to the tariffs.

 

Manufacturing has a more global implication - we already know that many parts of the world are really slowing down. 

 

I found this editorial by Paul Krugman to be very interesting about Germany - their problems today and how they should overcome it.

NYT 08/21/2019 - Paul Krugman - The world economy has a Germany problem

 

We cannot control how other countries deal with their economic downturns - run debt or not run debt.  Ecomonic management of a country seems to be a philisophical guess at best.  We just have to protect ourselves from unsavory policies which they may use which do affect us.

* * * * It's Always Something . . . Roseanne Roseannadanna
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Manufacturing Index Contracts for the 1st Time In a Decade

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Manufacturing sector contracts for the first time in nearly a decade

 

  • The U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) was 49.9 in August, below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the first time since September 2009, according to IHS Markit.
  • New orders received by manufacturers dropped the most in 10 years, while the data also showed export sales tanked to the lowest level since August 2009, the data show.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/22/manufacturing-sector-contracts-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-a-decade...

 

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