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Honored Social Butterfly

Influential coronavirus model reduces Florida's projected deaths by over 70%

Some beaches and parks in the state have begun reopening as outlook grows better.

 

BY:  Daniel Payne

 

A major coronavirus model on Friday radically revised downward the number of expected COVID-19 deaths in Florida, painting a relatively optimistic picture for the state even as its governor had earlier received criticism for refusing to lock it down until the beginning of April. 

 

The "Murray Model," developed by scientists out of the University of Washington and repeatedly cited by White House officials over the course of the pandemic, had earlier this week projected 4,748 deaths from the coronavirus through August. On Friday the scientists in charge of the model sharply downgraded those estimates, now projecting a total of 1,363 deaths over the course of the spring and summer. 

 

That revision, which represents a 71 percent total reduction in the number of expected deaths, comes after experts and pundits predicted a catastrophic death toll from Florida's relatively late stay-at-home order. While many states instituted strict lockdowns from early to mid-March, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis refused to do so in his own state until early April, leading Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden to slam DeSantis for not taking "science-based action" to the outbreak.

 

DeSantis defended his decision at a March press conference, arguing: "There’s a lot of negative impact from [the lockdowns]. People are going to go out of business. People are going to lose their jobs." The state did shut down its schools in mid-March, while some local authorities imposed their own stay-at-home orders and business shutdowns. 

 

On Friday, Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry announced the city's beaches and parks would be re-opened to the public, though people are still not permitted to use them for recreation other than walking, running and other forms of exercise. 

 

Florida has seen around 750 deaths from the disease so far and currently has about 3,700 residents hospitalized. 

 

 

VIMTSTL
Honored Social Butterfly

    It should not be rocket science, but it does appear to be so for some of the ignoble donald supporters as they quickly dismiss parts of the model to which they claim is excellent ( while on other threads where the RW dismiss all "models" - but I digress).   

    He cautioned that when social distancing measures lift, outbreaks could spark up again.

"If you ease up prematurely the epidemic can rebound right back to the level we are at now in a matter of weeks," Murray says. "So the potential for rebound is enormous if we let up on social distancing."

 

    The pictures out of FL beaches indicate that RW followers of DeSantis are pretty stupid as they seem to believe that 18" equals 6 feet.

PRO-LIFE is Affordable Healthcare for ALL .
Honored Social Butterfly

How about some math to put it in perspective.  

 

Miami -Dade population ~3,000,000

9300 cases = 0.3% ...... 3/10th of 1%

207 deaths = 0.007% ....... 7/1000th of 1%

 

And this is the hot spot. 


Libs are nuttier than squirrel poop
Honored Social Butterfly


@Fishslayer777 wrote:

How about some math to put it in perspective.  

 

Miami -Dade population ~3,000,000

9300 cases = 0.3% ...... 3/10th of 1%

207 deaths = 0.007% ....... 7/1000th of 1%

 

And this is the hot spot. 


This is where the people are, and is one of the gateways to the world for many people so you would expect it to be the hot spot. The Southern part of FL is what makes the State great. The northern part of FL. is really just rural GA, and AL. They put military basses there to try and bring it into the modern world some years ago.

Honored Social Butterfly


@john258 wrote:

@Fishslayer777 wrote:

How about some math to put it in perspective.  

 

Miami -Dade population ~3,000,000

9300 cases = 0.3% ...... 3/10th of 1%

207 deaths = 0.007% ....... 7/1000th of 1%

 

And this is the hot spot. 


This is where the people are, and is one of the gateways to the world for many people so you would expect it to be the hot spot. The Southern part of FL is what makes the State great. The northern part of FL. is really just rural GA, and AL. They put military basses there to try and bring it into the modern world some years ago.


And I can guarantee you that they have failed miserably. this is one of the most backward places that I have had the misfortune of becoming a resident. the amount of red necks in this area is gigantic. they act, speak and live in the the 17th century and have no conception of what is a civilized place. I often wonder as to why the military people have not brought some progress to this area. but after evaluating the mentality of the natives is actually an impossibility.

no name
Honored Social Butterfly


@john258 wrote:

@Fishslayer777 wrote:

How about some math to put it in perspective.  

 

Miami -Dade population ~3,000,000

9300 cases = 0.3% ...... 3/10th of 1%

207 deaths = 0.007% ....... 7/1000th of 1%

 

And this is the hot spot. 


This is where the people are, and is one of the gateways to the world for many people so you would expect it to be the hot spot. The Southern part of FL is what makes the State great. The northern part of FL. is really just rural GA, and AL. They put military basses there to try and bring it into the modern world some years ago.


Hot spot in Florida = a low infection rate.... that's the point. Compare those numbers to NY for example.  I don't get the north Florida comment? what has military bases have to do with covid-19? 


Libs are nuttier than squirrel poop
Honored Social Butterfly

You can not compare FL with NYC two totally different places and in different stages. Lot of Spring Breakers left FL and took the virus to their homes where it increased the rate there. Think about the Fl comment.

Honored Social Butterfly

jimc91:   Some beaches and parks in the state have begun reopening as outlook grows better.

 

 

Yes, I'm sure this will almost certainly ensure a lower number of cases and deaths. 🙂

Regular Contributor

Governor DeSantis is a horrible governor on the COVID matter. Here in Volusia County our local talk radio host who drinks the Trump koolaid by the gallon is even denouncing him.

 

Nobody's getting unemployment, the 77 million dollar system the Gov. Scott instituted in 2013 can't handle the client load so it's his fault. (That's called passing the buck)

Very few people (if any) have gotten a stimulus check, that's why everyone wants to go back to work.

 

The beaches are partly open due to a lawsuit filed against the state, I heard it was initiated on the west coast. State Beaches vs. County Beaches, two separate entities, then you have the Feds with National Seashores. Some Counties have had their beaches open, here in Volusia County the beach was fully closed for like 12 hours before it was re-opened partially. Massive problem as the lockdown in Orlando drove their residents to come to the beach for something to do, I think 700 warnings were written on the first 6 hours (daylight on a Saturday) for the large crowds that showed up. Next day on Sunday they rescinded it with a modified shut down that let you exercise, run, walk, bike, swim, fish, (I don't know how much exercise you get from that) but no sitting in a chair or laying on the beach. People are pissed off.

 

The local paper here in Volusia County has a article on how DeSantis has not been publicly speaking like he did for Hurricane Dorian. He's a terrible speaker, from the press conferences I listened too he was nothing but a fast talking bunch of mumbo jumbo with a lot of ummm's & ahhh's.

The other guy they got now is just as bad. Plus all the back slapping and name dropping is just unbelievable, this is nothing new around here, they had a town meeting for all the problems that have been going on for over two decades with 12 million dollars of CRA money spent here in Daytona Beach with very little results. The meeting was limited to 2 hours, the first 20 minutes was all about introductions of the 1/2 dozen or so of panel members and how great they were and thanking them for they're contributions and service to the city. Just unbelievable... watch the Canadian, UK, New Zealand, other states press conferences and you will see a much more serious, informative and civil intelligent reporting on the pandemic than the circus that you see here with Trump & company.

My favorite is the Isle of Man press conferences (no TT this year) on Manx Radio's YouTube channel.  Watch them for some civility.

 

The PBS News Hour cut off VP Pence the other night as he gave a run around answer to the hosts question about PPE and that many place still have inadequate supplies, all he could give was the same run around... we, tons, millions... etc  pathetic.

 

And the testing?  A young (23) woman here in this County was teaching English in Spain, got back just in time but developed a cough and fever, went to the hospital and got tested, sure 'enuff she was positive but was told to isolate at home, she got better... but guess what? She got a bill for six grand. aaaYup her health insurance for Spain was no good here and they didn't charge her for the COVID test but they did a whole bunch of other tests that racked up the bill.

Now you know why hospital admissions are down... Shall I go on?

(I use to work in a hospital, yep one that paid 100 million dollars for medicare fraud)

"Don't worry about the oil running out, worry about the food running out"
Professor Al Bartlett PhD (emeritus 1923-2013)
Honored Social Butterfly

Did you vote for Gillum? He's the best. lol!  Thank God for Gov DeSantis. 

 

Some folks would be fine living in a zoo . Granted you'll probably live longer in a zoo. I'm not doing that. 


Libs are nuttier than squirrel poop
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@Fishslayer777 wrote:

Did you vote for Gillum? He's the best. lol!  Thank God for Gov DeSantis. 

 

Some folks would be fine living in a zoo . Granted you'll probably live longer in a zoo. I'm not doing that. 


As a Republican that still misses Jeb Bush as the greatest governor of this State, obviously De Santis is the worse in comparison to even Scott, who is not well remembered in this State.  De Santins is a disciple of Trump and kisses his behind to anything that Trump does, and his BFF is Matt Gaetz another disciple of this President. Both are the worse example as inefficient and incapable politicians and unfortunately they happen to be Republican.s

no name
Honored Social Butterfly

Once again, logic is not part of Trump World, The only thing this article illustrates is the fact that the original death estimates were probably way too high and they had to make an adjustment. After the passage of time, they significantly lowered the number of estimated deaths. But that had nothing to do with DeSantis.

 

Please remember, we're still in guess mode. Nobody knows how many deaths there will eventually be in Florda or the U.S.

Honored Social Butterfly


@jimc91 wrote:
Some beaches and parks in the state have begun reopening as outlook grows better.

 

BY:  Daniel Payne

 

A major coronavirus model on Friday radically revised downward the number of expected COVID-19 deaths in Florida, painting a relatively optimistic picture for the state even as its governor had earlier received criticism for refusing to lock it down until the beginning of April. 

 

The "Murray Model," developed by scientists out of the University of Washington and repeatedly cited by White House officials over the course of the pandemic, had earlier this week projected 4,748 deaths from the coronavirus through August. On Friday the scientists in charge of the model sharply downgraded those estimates, now projecting a total of 1,363 deaths over the course of the spring and summer. 

 

That revision, which represents a 71 percent total reduction in the number of expected deaths, comes after experts and pundits predicted a catastrophic death toll from Florida's relatively late stay-at-home order. While many states instituted strict lockdowns from early to mid-March, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis refused to do so in his own state until early April, leading Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden to slam DeSantis for not taking "science-based action" to the outbreak.

 

DeSantis defended his decision at a March press conference, arguing: "There’s a lot of negative impact from [the lockdowns]. People are going to go out of business. People are going to lose their jobs." The state did shut down its schools in mid-March, while some local authorities imposed their own stay-at-home orders and business shutdowns. 

 

On Friday, Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry announced the city's beaches and parks would be re-opened to the public, though people are still not permitted to use them for recreation other than walking, running and other forms of exercise. 

 

Florida has seen around 750 deaths from the disease so far and currently has about 3,700 residents hospitalized. 

 

 


Would love to see and hear your own opinions and not the opinion of others.\

boring2.jpg

 

no name
Honored Social Butterfly

@Roxanna35 Being a member of this forum does not require you to read my posts...  

 

If you have anything to add to the actual topic, by all means post it.  It is perfectly acceptable behavior to not read it or not respond to it...

 

Do enjoy your day...  Our beach is open today, just use good judgement.

 

 

VIMTSTL
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@jimc91 wrote:

@Roxanna35 Being a member of this forum does not require you to read my posts...  

 

If you have anything to add to the actual topic, by all means post it.  It is perfectly acceptable behavior to not read it or not respond to it...

 

Do enjoy your day...  Our beach is open today, just use good judgement.

 

 


Oh but I love your posts, so i really want to see your opinions and not of any other person that is not in  this message board. 

no name
Honored Social Butterfly

Yes, governor ron, nice job... let the kids play, spend some money, then leave, like John said, to infect 25% of the US. 
And ron, 1,363 dead, maybe more, is okay with you? I don't suppose that you personally spoke with those folks, to see how they feel about dying because of your policies...I'm sure they are overjoyed! Just like the 40,000+ that have died on trump's watch...how many of them could have been spared a tragic, lonely death?

Honored Social Butterfly

Did those "spring breakers" all go to NY? You're slipping ... didn't blame president Trump.
Thank God for Gov. DeSantis. He's doing a GREAT job!

Libs are nuttier than squirrel poop
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@Fishslayer777 wrote:
Did those "spring breakers" all go to NY? You're slipping ... didn't blame president Trump.
Thank God for Gov. DeSantis. He's doing a GREAT job!

No most went to other States and helped start them on the way to having more cases of the virus, and then more deaths. Yes the Gov. of FL is doing a great job of being a great right wing Gov. of FL. He is causing misery and death to people all over the world. I see you thought about my comments and proved the experts correct. Trump and the right wing have always hurt people, and killed people it is the center of their governing.

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Gov DeSantis has been out front from the beginning. Much praise from medical professionals and the experts. However this isn't a competition although the dems would like it to be a blame game for political gain.

Misery and death all over the world? that is so off the rails, so outrageous, such a left field observation and is absolutely false and totally made up. Wow, just wow. I guess that's why the cruise ships came to Florida with the sick people on board after being refused entry from multiple countries. They came to Florida to be killed... right?

I have to remind myself often that our democrat friends are "special", it's best not to expect too much from them.




Libs are nuttier than squirrel poop
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@Fishslayer777 wrote:
Gov DeSantis has been out front from the beginning. Much praise from medical professionals and the experts. However this isn't a competition although the dems would like it to be a blame game for political gain.

Misery and death all over the world? that is so off the rails, so outrageous, such a left field observation and is absolutely false and totally made up. Wow, just wow. I guess that's why the cruise ships came to Florida with the sick people on board after being refused entry from multiple countries. They came to Florida to be killed... right?

I have to remind myself often that our democrat friends are "special", it's best not to expect too much from them.




Yes the Gov. has been out front from the beginning in spreading the virus to other parts of the country with his open beaches, and blocking traffic coming into FL from other States for fear  of the virus. He can export it but not import it. Most Medical Professionals have said from day one what he did was wrong including Dr. F.  In case you do not know most of the cruse ships that came to FL are based in FL, and the others a port in FL was the closet. The Gov. tried to prevent the Cruse ships from docking in FL, and did keep a few a sea for days which caused more deaths, and virus cases. The FL gov has as much blood on his hands as Trump but his supporters, and Trump enablers undersdtand none of this.

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@Fishslayer777 wrote:
Did those "spring breakers" all go to NY? You're slipping ... didn't blame president Trump.
Thank God for Gov. DeSantis. He's doing a GREAT job!

Speaking as a Democratic Liberal, I can agree that DeSantis AND Trump are doing a GREAT JOB.  Of course, my criteria may be a bit different than yours. 

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Florida update... 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=21&v=__MYRVVWbyE&feature=emb_logo


Libs are nuttier than squirrel poop
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@Fishslayer777 wrote:

Florida update... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=21&v=__MYRVVWbyE&feature=emb_logo


Florida reaches 27,058 coronavirus cases as governor says curve is flattening

ORLANDO, Fla. Coronavirus cases increased by the hundreds Monday for a new total of 27,058 COVID-19 patients, 4,000 hospitalizations and 823 deaths Monday evening.

 

Earlier in the day, there were 26,660 cases, 789 deaths and 3,842 hospitalizations. That represents an increase of 389 more patients, 34 more deaths and 158 more hospitalizations.

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/04/20/florida-reaches-26660-coronavirus-cases-as-models...

 

Honored Social Butterfly


@jimc91 wrote:

@Roxanna35 Being a member of this forum does not require you to read my posts...  

 

If you have anything to add to the actual topic, by all means post it.  It is perfectly acceptable behavior to not read it or not respond to it...

 

Do enjoy your day...  Our beach is open today, just use good judgement.

 

 


I think I heard the beaches in South FL are not open, and the Mayor of Key West tells all to stay inside, and do not visit. They always said their was  a dividing line between  North and South in Fl and now we all know why.

Honored Social Butterfly

The "Murray Model," developed by scientists out of the University of Washington and repeatedly cited by White House officials over the course of the pandemic, had earlier this week projected 4,748 deaths from the coronavirus through August. On Friday the scientists in charge of the model sharply downgraded those estimates, now projecting a total of 1,363 deaths over the course of the spring and summer. 

 

That revision, which represents a 71 percent total reduction in the number of expected deaths, comes after experts and pundits predicted a catastrophic death toll from Florida's relatively late stay-at-home order. While many states instituted strict lockdowns from early to mid-March, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis refused to do so in his own state until early April, leading Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden to slam DeSantis for not taking "science-based action" to the outbreak.

 

 

 

VIMTSTL
Honored Social Butterfly

Logic is never a strong point in Trump World. Assuming everything in this article is correct, all it proves is that the initial death estimates were far too high. It has nothing to do with how DeSantis acted to allegedly reduce the number of deaths. In fact, he's received almost universal contempt for his decision to allow college students to visit Florida for their spring break. I think the organizer of that event died from the Corona Virus.

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