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Regular Social Butterfly

Historically Accurate Election Model Predicts 2020 Result of Trump vs. Biden

         hope rock GOOD Aug 2020.jpg

 

07-09-2020
 

President Trump is all but certain to be re-elected, according to a political science professor who has developed an accurate presidential election prediction model.

 

Stony Brook University Prof. Helmut Norpoth revealed the result to the website Mediaite

Norpoth's model predicted Trump would win in 2016, even when the polls seemed to indicate the opposite.

 

The university reported back in 2016, "Based on his analysis of primary voting, Norpoth gave Trump an 87%-99% chance of beating Hillary Clinton nearly one year ago. He stuck by his model in press interviews despite an overwhelming consensus of pollsters and pundits promising a Clinton victory."

 

His model would have correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 elections, and it says President Trump has a 91 percent chance of being reelected.

 

The model also indicates the president could win a bigger majority in the Electoral College this time than he did in 2016.

 

The professor said his model emphasizes how much enthusiasm candidates generate early in the nominating process, discounting the opinion polls.

 

So far, polls have shown Biden leading over Trump. But the professor pointed out that many candidates have led in the polls in the spring but lost in the fall. 

 

"The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall," Norpoth said.

 

There's still a long way to go before Election Day, and polls can change a lot, especially after the candidates hold their nominating conventions and presidential debates.

 

And while the Biden camp has said he will engage in three debates with Trump, critics are wondering if they'll really allow that to happen, pointing to numerous gaffes that they say raise questions about his mental abilities, including this latest clip:  (See link above)

 

animated woman praying Aug 2020.gif

 

 
TRUMP-PENCE 2020!!! To Save This Country From The Insanity of The Dems!
Honored Social Butterfly

Hey.  Anything can happen.  On  the other hand. nobody has ever been this far down in the polls this close to the election and come back. Still, anything can happen. I am glad you found someone who thought Trump could win under these circumstances. It will make the next 93 days much happier for you 

Honored Social Butterfly

There are all kinds of predictions out there.

 

 

Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.

  Chance of winningthe electoral college Chance of winningthe most votes Predicted range of electoral college votes (270 to win)

 
Joe Biden
Democrat
around 9 in 10
or 91%
better than 19 in 20
or 99%
249-415
 
Donald Trump
Republican
around 1 in 10
or 8%
less than 1 in 20
or 1%
123-289
The probability of an electoral-college tie is <1%
 
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