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Valued Social Butterfly
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Re: Fact Checking Trump's State Of The Union Address

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Message 61 of 73

@aruzinsky wrote:

@easyed598 wrote:

.... Under Obama, black unemployment was cut by more than half, from 16.8% to 7.8%.  It has went down under Trump from 7.8% to 6.8%. ...Obama change -54% Der Trumper -13%

 

Extrapolating Trump's percent of percent black unemployment reduction to 8 years: Assumes the least popular POTUS in history will serve 8 years, Probability = 0.00%, all conclusions invalid.

 

1 - (1 - 0.128)^8 =  0.334 = 33.4%

 

At the end of Trump's second term, a reasonable estimate of black unemployment will be 7.8% * (1 - 0.334) = 5.19%.   I'ld say 5.19% black unemployment is pretty good for an uncooperative group that believes that Trump is a racist.   

Assumes black and white unemployment will decline "lock-step".

Historical occasions where this has happened 0.

 

Probability a racist POTUS and a GOP dependant on the support of the KKK, NeoNazis and White Supremacists will push for higher black employment - 0.00%

 

Assumption and conclusion totally invalid


 

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Valued Social Butterfly
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Re: Fact Checking Trump's State Of The Union Address

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Message 62 of 73

@aruzinsky wrote:

"Trump made false claims about the terrorists being released.

 

Yes, he should have said, "Obama traded a deserter for 5 Taliban leaders."  


Or Der Trumper could've admitted he's a gutless draftdodging preppytwit (because Der Trumper absolutely is). But that would require Donny to tell the truth, and he hasn't done that since he was 6, the point at which he ceased to develop mentally and emotionally.

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Frequent Social Butterfly
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Re: Fact Checking Trump's State Of The Union Address

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Message 63 of 73

Watched some of Trump but didn't leave with anything except same ol', same ol' offensive guy who doesn't give a rip about anyone but himself.  Am at the stage where I know he's a constant liar & don't expect anything different so discount everything he says.

 

I liked young Kennedy's response pretty much and thought the venue & audience were modest but reflective of his constituency. Agree, he (or his writers) are not quite there yet but hopefully will be soon enough.

 

Joe Kennedy's talk got me excited enough to jump up, turn the computer back on & post "We Choose Both!" on my Facebook page (while thinking of those dumb, false-choice GOP posts like: "Share if you think homeless vets come before refugees", etc., etc...). I wished he had used that phrase more as his continuing theme.

 

Kennedy's verbiage & demeanor were a welcome & dignified change from Trump's & a reminder of what our leaders should sound like (i.e., the opposite of Trump).

 

Missed the media discussion that usually follows these talks; my station went straight to late news when Kennedy finished.

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Re: Fact Checking Trump's State Of The Union Address

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Message 64 of 73

@easyed598 wrote:

.... Under Obama, black unemployment was cut by more than half, from 16.8% to 7.8%.  It has went down under Trump from 7.8% to 6.8%. ...

 


Let's mathematically scrutinize that.  Obama's "16.8% to 7.8%." was over an 8 year period. Trump's "7.8% to 6.8%" was over a one year period.  Trump's annual percent of percent reduction is (7.8-6.8)/7.8 = 12.8%. 

 

Extrapolating Trump's percent of percent black unemployment reduction to 8 years:

 

1 - (1 - 0.128)^8 =  0.334 = 33.4%

 

At the end of Trump's second term, a reasonable estimate of black unemployment will be 7.8% * (1 - 0.334) = 5.19%.   I'ld say 5.19% black unemployment is pretty good for an uncooperative group that believes that Trump is a racist.   

Old Witch
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Re: Fact Checking Trump's State Of The Union Address

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Message 65 of 73

"Trump made false claims about the terrorists being released.

 

Yes, he should have said, "Obama traded a deserter for 5 Taliban leaders."  

Old Witch
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Re: Fact Checking Trump's State Of The Union Address

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Message 66 of 73

   For those who didn't watch a couple of things.    The polling is mostly Republican viewers. so the numbers are subject to bias and of course they used the let's include all process.

    Both LA Times and WAPO did a fact check on Donald.   WAPO in real time and LAT this AM

 

    Also, it was interesting that the group of people who were not celebrated by Donald was Hispanics - instead he attempted to paint them all as members of MS13.    His 4 pillars plan is from Goolate / VA and it is such a load of crap, that CATO Institute even complained about.      What Donald wants to ignite in a war between current immigrants, Deamers and future immigrants.     His maga, really is his alt-right vision of make america white again.  

     For easy reading, Cato has a chart:  

 

      

 

    https://www.cato.org/blog/white-house-plan-bans-22-million-legal-immigrants-over-5-decades

 

     Me, I attended a Watch Party put on by Telemundo - and was interviewed.  I also completed a Donald - how am I doing survey.... hee hee hee.   Whoever designed it, left room for comments...my fav.      How do I know it went to GOP - by the text and sales pitch I received afterwards.... oh my.

PRO-LIFE is Affordable Healthcare for ALL .
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Valued Social Butterfly
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Re: Fact Checking Trump's State Of The Union Address

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Message 67 of 73

I watched the speech and I watched the Joe Kennedy response...ostensibly for the Democratic Party.  Frankly, neither was a surprise and both were disappointing from this citizens viewpoint.

 

Some time back, when criticized for his unscripted off-the-cuff bombastic, divisive, accusative remarks and speaking style, 'the donald' said.....when the right time comes I will be so presidential you will be so bored and I can be more presidential than anyone who ever held this office...except Lincoln.  I didn't use quotes because reports of the exact words vary a bit.  The gist of it doesn't though.  I take those words to mean that he could put on whatever act would fit the occasion.  And he did.

 

Reports prior to the speech said this one had been in the cooker a long time and a lot of preparation had gone into it.  That showed. I, for one, do not consider that to be a hopeful thing regarding the future of this Nation.  Frankly once more,.......it might be better if those who equivocate were faced with inescapable fact.  Yeah...it would hurt more, but it would be over quicker.

 

It was clear the rhetoric  had been carefully tailored to the audience.  No surprise.  Mostly missing was the unabashed appeal to the darker sides of human nature that have become his hall-mark.  Instead we saw posturing worthy of a dyed-in-the wool bleeding heart liberal.  The script was carefully crafted, subdued and the delivery kept under enough control to allow his sycophants to claim...."See, see, he's not what you say he is!"  Wait for it....it won't be long.  At the same time there was enough 'red-meat' so the RRRR could climb on board, chant a few slogans and not go home hungry.  

 

We saw once more a shameful exploitation of people for an obvious political purpose, a testament to the cynical willingness of politicians to exploit people for personal purpose and think nothing of it. Egregious heart-string plucking to advance a political agenda.  Shameful.

 

Not the heroes' fault that they got caught up in the charade.  Truth be known, if you had been in their shoes you may likely have done the same. But.....what happened will play well in the audience it was aimed at.  The empathy sponge was squeezed to a fare-thee-well.  This time on behalf of the 'compassionate conservative'.  

 

Unvarnished fact?  Fugitaboutit!  There is no such thing possible with the set of players in this game.

Everything....EVERYTHING....is presented behind filters carefully selected to push the unwary into unwarranted conclusions.

 

No....that offense does NOT become acceptable just because somebody else does it.  Each offense is an individual thing performed by an individual person.  There is where the responsibility truly lies.  Don't forget it when if ever you have your time on stage. It's you that does it....no one else.  And there is no excuse for it.  None whatsoever.  No matter who does it and for whatever reason they seek to excuse it.  Shameful.

 

The so-called Democratic Response was not effective.  The venue was poorly selected, the audience much smaller than the main event and the presenter woefully inexperienced.  In my view, ineffective.  Sincerity and candor are important things, to be sure, but....if Joe Kennedy is the heir apparent of the Democratic Leadership, he has a whole helluva lot of growing up to do.  Points for trying, though.

 

So that's my take on this thing.  It's over and that's a good thing.  Let's drop it get back to Mueller and how to get rid of this cancer growing in our belly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Re: Fact Checking Trump's State Of The Union Address

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Message 68 of 73

Chasky wrote---Trump falsely took credit for the huge reduction in black unemployment. Under Obama, black unemployment was cut by more than half, from 16.8% to 7.8%.  It has went down under Trump from 7.8% to 6.8%.-----

The unemployment rate for African American workers has never been lower — another sign of the strength of the economy.

Still, at 6.8%, black unemployment remains well above the rate for white people, at 3.7%. That disparity is deeply rooted and a continuing cause of concern for economists and advocates.  ____of course CNN will put a negative on unemployment for blacks

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Re: Fact Checking Trump's State Of The Union Address

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Message 69 of 73

Sorry Chasky.  but I am now extremely worried about what has happened in this country. and are seeing that we do not have that much time anymore.
Regarding the State of the Union it was not a surprise to any of us. whether his facts were right or wrong we already knew where his facts come from, no surprises there.
So what is the purpose by proving that the man lies, that the man in incompetent that the man doesn't know how to govern. that the entire Republican party is really is a tizzy because they may loose one the houses ?

Am sorry, but I believe that the time for action is now. we don't have the time any more for talking.

We need to have a concerted effort to see that all of this comes to an end and that the 2018 elections provide the respite that we all need.

We all need to do what we can to help.  Whatever and in whatever form that we choose.

 

 

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Re: Fact Checking Trump's State Of The Union Address

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Message 70 of 73

I did not watch Trump's State Of The Union as I could not handle more of the constant manure Trump spews.

 

I believed that Trump would take credit for things he never initiated, praise himself, state half truths and total lies ..... typical Trump!

 

After watching the news this morning and viewing the fact check documents, my belief was confirmed!

DUMP TRUMP AND DITCH MITCH TO MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!
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