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Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

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Message 1 of 14

As I always say about polls, I will say about "economic models"--don't  believe either!   VOTE!!! 

 

And as Shakespeare wrote, "OUT **bleep** SPOT!"  That name is TRUMP!

 

Vote him out in 2020!!!

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Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

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@jimc91 wrote:

BY:  Nick Givas

 

President Trump is favored to win reelection to the White House in 2020, according to a Moody's Analytics report, but several factors will have to fall into place for the commander-in-chief to receive another four years.

 

Moody's report, tweeted out on Tuesday, said early signs point to a Trump victory mostly fueled by a strong economy. However, the results will depend on voter turnout.

 

"Our 2020 Presidential Election Models: Early signs point to Trump, though turnout is key," the tweet read.

 

The report states that Trump has the advantage in several forecast models such as the economy, personal finances, and energy prices.

 

"The current environment of stable to low gas prices favors Trump in his reelection bid. Moreover, the baseline forecast calls for gasoline prices to dip slightly in the year leading up to the 2020 election," the report reads.

 

"Finances matter here as well, as voters who feel better off from real and not just nominal, wage gains are more likely to express comfort in the status quo. This measure also favors Trump."

 

The report also claims Trump would win in a massive landslide if voter sentiment about their pocketbooks was the main factor that drove them to the polls.

 

"If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition, taking home 351 electoral votes to the Democrats’ 187, assuming average voter turnout," the document states. "This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election."

 

Moody's said Trump's fluctuating approval ratings will not work against him and are comparable to past presidents who have won reelection. They also say a strong stock market will help the president, even if it is not directly tied to economic growth.

 

The caveat comes in the form of voter turnout. The report claims that if turnout among Democrats and independents match their maximum historical highs, Trump would lose in a tight race.

 

"An average of the three sets of model results suggests that if turnout of nonincumbent voters in 2020 matches the historical high across states, then Democrats would win a squeaker with 279 electoral votes to the president’s 259," the report reads.

 

"Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire would all flip from Trump’s column versus our average turnout baseline."

 

Moody's stated that the country's continued economic upswing is vital to a Trump victory, but also claimed America is at risk of heading into a financial downturn, as part of an impending global recession, in the next 12-18 months.

 

“I think risks are awfully high that if something doesn’t stick to script then we do have a recession,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “I’ll say this also: Even if we don’t have a recession over the next 12-18 months, I think it’s pretty clear that we’re going to have a much weaker economy.”

 

Moody's said they have corrected their turnout models from 2016, which caused the forecast to incorrectly predict a victory by Hillary Clinton.

 

 

 

 


One **** load of "IFs"  and other "qualifiers" there jimc91!

 

And of course your "reports" don't take into account that now 52% of Americans (and growing) want Trump not only impeached but also removed from office. That fact alone de-bunks your prediction that Trump could win the popular vote.

 

And I have to believe that all your "reports" were generated before Trump's latest massive unconstitutional violations, screw ups and treasonous activity such as:

- Admission to quid pro quo with Ukraine for personal unconstitutional favor,

- Abandoning our Kurd allies and leaving them to annihilation,

- Turning over our military bases in Syria to Russians,

- Awarding a government contract to himself,

- Condemnation within his own party for ALL of the above.

 

Considering today's reality vs wishful thinking, the far more accurate prediction is that Trump will be removed from office before the 2020 election!!!

 

DUMP TRUMP AND DITCH MITCH TO MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!
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Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

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To be clear, I am not hoping for any damage to the America economy. I would like nothing better than to have Trump suddenly change into a competent leader but it is not going to happen. He appears to be breaking down by the day

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Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

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Message 4 of 14

BY:  Nick Givas

 

President Trump is favored to win reelection to the White House in 2020, according to a Moody's Analytics report, but several factors will have to fall into place for the commander-in-chief to receive another four years.

 

Moody's report, tweeted out on Tuesday, said early signs point to a Trump victory mostly fueled by a strong economy. However, the results will depend on voter turnout.

 

"Our 2020 Presidential Election Models: Early signs point to Trump, though turnout is key," the tweet read.

 

The report states that Trump has the advantage in several forecast models such as the economy, personal finances, and energy prices.

 

"The current environment of stable to low gas prices favors Trump in his reelection bid. Moreover, the baseline forecast calls for gasoline prices to dip slightly in the year leading up to the 2020 election," the report reads.

 

"Finances matter here as well, as voters who feel better off from real and not just nominal, wage gains are more likely to express comfort in the status quo. This measure also favors Trump."

 

The report also claims Trump would win in a massive landslide if voter sentiment about their pocketbooks was the main factor that drove them to the polls.

 

"If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition, taking home 351 electoral votes to the Democrats’ 187, assuming average voter turnout," the document states. "This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election."

 

Moody's said Trump's fluctuating approval ratings will not work against him and are comparable to past presidents who have won reelection. They also say a strong stock market will help the president, even if it is not directly tied to economic growth.

 

The caveat comes in the form of voter turnout. The report claims that if turnout among Democrats and independents match their maximum historical highs, Trump would lose in a tight race.

 

"An average of the three sets of model results suggests that if turnout of nonincumbent voters in 2020 matches the historical high across states, then Democrats would win a squeaker with 279 electoral votes to the president’s 259," the report reads.

 

"Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Minnesota and New Hampshire would all flip from Trump’s column versus our average turnout baseline."

 

Moody's stated that the country's continued economic upswing is vital to a Trump victory, but also claimed America is at risk of heading into a financial downturn, as part of an impending global recession, in the next 12-18 months.

 

“I think risks are awfully high that if something doesn’t stick to script then we do have a recession,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “I’ll say this also: Even if we don’t have a recession over the next 12-18 months, I think it’s pretty clear that we’re going to have a much weaker economy.”

 

Moody's said they have corrected their turnout models from 2016, which caused the forecast to incorrectly predict a victory by Hillary Clinton.

 

 

 

 

VIMTSTL
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Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

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Message 5 of 14

I can't see a Warren/Bernie ticket.  Warren will want a young minority male to balance things out.  I am thinking Yang as he could calm the Wall Street crowd a bit.  When Warren starts stumping the nation, I think Trump is going to have a hard time. She won't let him sneak up on her at the debate stage as Clinton did. Plus, we have seen all his tricks. He is out of ammunition. 

 

The economic models they used for this post assume no degradation in the economy over the next year. I find that a highly unlikely scenario giving how little Trump understands about economics and how many of our trading partners want him out of office. 

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Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

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Message 6 of 14

iI strongly feel that if the Democrats pick the wrong candidate they will loose the elections.
People are very unsure of a Warren/Bernie candidacy, and the business community has already stated, that they will not vote for Warren.
I am really concerned that we can throw the coming elections if we don't get really wise. and pragmatic as to who is the candidate

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Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

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Message 7 of 14

The key assumption in the article is that the economic situation in America does not change. We have been watching Trump take apart our trade agreements and increase our costs by the month. Trump's only hope is that the recession we all know is coming does not arrive until after the election or his impeachment, whichever comes first. 

 

Based on the White House chaos which is unfolding as part of the impeachment story, I would say there will be plenty of reasons not to vote for Trump .  The Chinese have not weighted in yet and I am still betting they are going to saw off the limb Trump put himself on.

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Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

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Message 8 of 14

jimc91: 

Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

 

 

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Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

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Message 9 of 14

There are a bunch of Fairy Tales that have been written, and I guess that our poster is a subscriber. beautiful stories, I do recommend

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Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

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Message 10 of 14

Well then, congratulations to all my regressive friends but don't you mean a Pence victory? Donald is having some problems just STAYING in office

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