Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

Reply
Highlighted
Valued Social Butterfly
2
Kudos
379
Views

Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

379 Views
Message 11 of 14

For sure Tom. 
I'm wondering if Moodys factors in moral responsibility, truth versus lies, dislike of racism, white supremacy, sexism, destruction of our Government, loss of standing in the eyes of the World and our Allies, and love of dictators?

Sure don't think that those are plus points for trump!

Report Inappropriate Content
2
Kudos
379
Views
Highlighted
Valued Social Butterfly
2
Kudos
337
Views

Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

337 Views
Message 12 of 14
Ok Jim, this is for you: Rick Santorum has ominous warning for Trump regarding 2020 reelection:

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/rick-santorum-donald-trump-2020.html
Report Inappropriate Content
2
Kudos
337
Views
Highlighted
Valued Social Butterfly
3
Kudos
332
Views

Re: Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

332 Views
Message 13 of 14
Whatever it is your smoking, I would love some. The way things are looking for the criminal in Chief, he may very well be looking for a job HIMSELF, unless he is in prison by that time, LOL. Lock him up! But first, impeach him!!!
Report Inappropriate Content
3
Kudos
332
Views
Treasured Social Butterfly
0
Kudos
339
Views
13
Replies

Economic Models Predicting Even Bigger Trump Win in '20

339 Views
Message 14 of 14

BY:  Eric Mack

 

Moody's Analytics economic models have missed just one presidential election since 1980 – when it slighted President Donald Trump in 2016 – and now three are pointing to an even larger Trump victory in 2020.

 

After all, "the economy, stupid," as James Carville legendarily said.

 

"If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi told CNBC. "It's about turnout."

 

Moody's three economic models project at least 289 electoral votes for Trump and as many a 351, per Zandi.

 

"Our 'pocketbook' model is the most economically driven of the three," Moody's reports. "If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition. This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election."

 

Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the electoral vote 304-227, and economic indicators suggest President Trump is going to win 55% of the popular vote barring a "significant downturn" in the economy, according to Oxford Economics, The Washington Post reported.

 

"While a wide range of issues have influenced presidential elections over the last few decades, from healthcare and foreign policy, to taxation and government spending, one factor has been constant: It's the economy, stupid," Oxford Economics' Greg Daco and James Watson wrote last week, per the Post.

 

The primary economic indicators for an incumbent's re-election are unemployment, inflation, and real disposable income growth – all pointing strong for Trump and outweighing "negative exhaustion factor" that is hurting him, according to the Oxford Economics.

 

Their modeling has projected the popular vote winner accurately in all but two elections since 1948, according to the Post.




VIMTSTL
Report Inappropriate Content
0
Kudos
339
Views
13
Replies
cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Users
Top Authors