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Honored Social Butterfly

Cool modeling tool to see COVID impact

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/25/opinion/coronavirus-trump-reopen-america.html?smid=fb...

"We created this interactive model with epidemiologists to show why quickly returning to normal could be a historic mistake that would lead to an explosion of infections, hospitalizations and deaths."

 

This tool can model the impact of the disease based on when we take public health interventions, for how long we put them in place, how strict they are, how warm the weather is, and how infectious the disease is. 

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Honored Social Butterfly

    Unfortunately, some people are ignoring this modeling.     I read a piece this AM from a RW site that "explains" donalds call to open business and it is full of ifs and buts, aka bury with bs...but instead just read the headline.   

PRO-LIFE is Affordable Healthcare for ALL .
Honored Social Butterfly


@afisher wrote:

    Unfortunately, some people are ignoring this modeling.     I read a piece this AM from a RW site that "explains" donalds call to open business and it is full of ifs and buts, aka bury with bs...but instead just read the headline.   


My republican governor has shut everything down in Maryland.  Well, not everything, but he's taken a medically-informed decision on how to help slow the spread of the disease.  This doesn't have to be a partisan thing.   It just needs to be a smart thing. 


And trust me, I'm not happy with the social distancing at all.  It sucks.   But to me, the alternative is worse.  

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Honored Social Butterfly

Spreading fear without real numbers is speculation and dangerous. Dr. Michael Levitt is the benchmark for accuracy. He doesn't work for our president so educate yourself and quit spreading fear. 

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate


Libs are nuttier than squirrel poop
Esteemed Social Butterfly


@Fishslayer777 wrote:

Spreading fear without real numbers is speculation and dangerous. Dr. Michael Levitt is the benchmark for accuracy. He doesn't work for our president so educate yourself and quit spreading fear. 

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate


Note the timeline in the article.  Dr. Levitt is analyzing info from Jan. 31 when he noticed a decrease in the rate of deaths in China.  Three weeks later, he said it had peaked.  That's makes it around Feb. 21.  It is now 5 weeks after the peak (almost 2 months after the decrease) and China is still not back to a semblance of normalcy even though the acceleration of new cases is slowing down, but they are still fighting against a resurgence.  

 

So how does Dr. Levitt's model currently apply to the U.S.?  Has there been a decline in U.S. cases yet?  Has the U.S. hit the peak yet?  When it does, we are still looking at months to recovery which, no matter how you count it, will not happen by Easter. 

 

As far as "speculation" and "benchmark for accuracy", even Dr. Levitt "acknowledges that his figures are messy and that the official case counts in many areas are too low because testing is spotty".  There are still a lot of what-ifs and what-should-have-been-dones and maybes.

 

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Honored Social Butterfly

No comment from the doom and gloom crowd on Dr. Michael Levitt? and his proven model?

Libs are nuttier than squirrel poop
Honored Social Butterfly


@Fishslayer777 wrote:
No comment from the doom and gloom crowd on Dr. Michael Levitt? and his proven model?

Sigh.  Because nothing Dr. Levitt says contradicts what this modeling tool is showing.   He says we will be fine.  Of course we will.  In the future.   Right now, it's imperative that we practice social distancing, which closes down some businesses and all schools.  Even your Dr. Levitt agrees with that.  I don't hear him running around saying to have a big party on Easter like Trump is doing.  

 

As far as spreading fear, if the media coverage is making you feel anxious, that can be managed.  But it's more logical for you to step away from the screens than for us to stop talking about it. 

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