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Valued Social Butterfly
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Re: $300 Billion MEDICARE CUT in the Tax Bill proposed by the HOUSE GOP/NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS

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@cat2015 wrote:

Gail, what makes you think that PAYGO has anything to do with extending the life of Medicare, as the ACA reforms did? That's a bizarre assumption.

 

PAYGO simply takes money out of Medicare. The ACA did not take money out of the Medicare trust fund; all savings were added to the fund. PAYGO would take money away from Medicare, not add to the trust fund. The goals are not the same.

 

You apparently agree with the starve-the-beast strategy. You say, "It seems to me that the Democrats are going to be forced to the table to help control some of these programs...if the tax reform happens."

 

Is that what you want to see happen? Do you want the deficit and debt to rise to such levels that we force cuts to Medicare and Social Security, or we privatize them?

 


The answer to your question is YES! That is exactly what Republicans have been driving toward for the past 30 years - the Death of Medicare and total dependance of American Workers on their employers for their health care. It's why they will not simply raise the ceiling to save Social Secutiry and why they will do everything possible to kill PPACA and are working feverously to dismantel all the Government regulatory activities designed to protect the people FROM the Corporations.

 

What other purpose can all this serve? To say it's "starving The Beast" totally ignores which parts of "the Beast" are starved - the social safety net and regulatory protections for the people - and which parts are fed like a fois-gras goose - Military HARDWARE, subsidities to the Corporations, tax cuts for the Uberrich, and racist border enforcement.

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Re: $300 Billion MEDICARE CUT in the Tax Bill proposed by the HOUSE GOP/NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS

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Message 2 of 21

Gail, what makes you think that PAYGO has anything to do with extending the life of Medicare, as the ACA reforms did? That's a bizarre assumption.

 

PAYGO simply takes money out of Medicare. The ACA did not take money out of the Medicare trust fund; all savings were added to the fund. PAYGO would take money away from Medicare, not add to the trust fund. The goals are not the same.

 

You apparently agree with the starve-the-beast strategy. You say, "It seems to me that the Democrats are going to be forced to the table to help control some of these programs...if the tax reform happens."

 

Is that what you want to see happen? Do you want the deficit and debt to rise to such levels that we force cuts to Medicare and Social Security, or we privatize them?

 

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Valued Social Butterfly
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Re: $300 Billion MEDICARE CUT in the Tax Bill proposed by the HOUSE GOP/NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS

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Message 3 of 21

Thanks, Chasky. I only post under my own handle, so rk is mistaken.

 

It's good to be back.

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Valued Social Butterfly
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Re: $300 Billion MEDICARE CUT in the Tax Bill proposed by the HOUSE GOP/NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS

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Message 4 of 21

@GailL1 wrote:

From the CBO letter to Rep. Hoyer -

 

. . . . However, the PAYGO law limits reductions to Medicare to four percentage points (or roughly $25 billion for that year), leaving about $111 billion to be sequestered from the remaining mandatory accounts. Because the law entirely exempts many large accounts including low-income programs and social security, the annual resources available from which OMB must draw is, in CBO’s estimation, only between $85 billion to $90 billion, significantly less than the amount that would be required to be sequestered. . . . . 

 

. . . . Given that the required reduction in spending exceeds the estimated amount of available resources in each year over the next 10 years, in the absence of further legislation, OMB would be unable to implement the full extent of outlay reductions required by the PAYGO law.

 

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/costestimate/hr1hoyerletter.pdf

 

Then -

Hoyer Statement on the CBO’s Analysis that the GOP Tax Bill Will Trigger Statutory PAYGO Sequester Cuts

 

(I left out the name calling and innuendos and copied and pasted just the facts about PayGo as indicated in this back and forth between Rep Hoyer and the CBO on this matter. 

 

Hoyer Statement on the CBO’s Analysis that the GOP Tax Bill Will Trigger Statutory PAYGO Sequester C...

 

. . . . CBO shows how, under current law, statutory PAYGO will result in the complete elimination of all funding to dozens of mandatory programs next year, from assistance to farmers to border enforcement to student loans, as well as a roughly $25 billion in cut to Medicare. . . . . 

“I wrote the statutory PAYGO law when Democrats were in the Majority because I believe that Congress has a responsibility not to load the next generation with a massive amount of debt. . . . .

“While it is possible to avoid the PAYGO enforcement cuts triggered by their added deficits, Republicans would need Democratic votes to do it, requiring them to abandon their go-it-alone partisan strategy, . . . .  

 

So so it appears that we could SAVE 25 billion in Medicare, in fact CMS is already working on the savings - much like we did with the amount SAVED used for Obamacare.

 

It seems to me that the Democrats are gonna be forced to the table to help control some of these programs as mentioned in Rep Hoyers response as Minority Whip to the CBO letter if some form of tax reform happens.  We do not really know what the end product will be.

 

Welcome back, cat2015 -

Have at it - last word from me tonight.


We do know what the result's will be. Less money for Medicare. The new budget has cuts in it for Medicare also. The far rights goal is to get rid of Medicare, and SS period. You can look for all the articles you want but  they do not tell the real story. The far right Rep. goal is to end Medicare so stop trying to make this sound like there are people behind this that want to help people as they do not. This is not a tax cut but a tax increase, and benefit cut for all middle class people so the rich can get richer.

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Re: $300 Billion MEDICARE CUT in the Tax Bill proposed by the HOUSE GOP/NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS

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Message 5 of 21

@cat2015 wrote:

ByronDennis wrote: "The Tax bill has nothing to do with Medicare."

 

The tax cuts have everything to do with Medicare because they automatically trigger cuts to Medicare, beginning next year, that will amount to $500 billion over a decade. The CBO (hardly a "leftist" organization) has announced $25 billion in cuts for next year.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/15/us/politics/republicans-entitlement-programs-deficit.html?rref=co...

 

In addition to these automatic cuts to mandatory spending (the PAYGO rule), Paul Ryan and Kevin Brady have both signaled that they intend to follow tax cuts with entitlement "reform." The GOP 2018 budget bill includes $500 billion in Medicare cuts over ten years (plus $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts) in an effort to persuade so-called fiscal hawks in their party that the tax cuts would be paid for.

 

Expect to see the resurrection of Ryan's plan to turn Medicaid into a state block grant with caps on federal contributions. Expect also to see a resurrection of Ryan's plan to turn Medicare into a voucher program.

 

We have no business adding $1.5 trillion to the debt to deliver tax cuts to multinational corporations and wealthy donors. These giveaways always trigger automatic Medicare cuts.

 


Fine posting Cat, and welcome back. A poster here (rk9152)  has been constantly calling another lady poster here "Cat". Maybe having you and her both posting will stop those insane actions.


"The only thing man learns from history is man learns nothing from history"
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Re: $300 Billion MEDICARE CUT in the Tax Bill proposed by the HOUSE GOP/NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS

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Message 6 of 21

From the CBO letter to Rep. Hoyer -

 

. . . . However, the PAYGO law limits reductions to Medicare to four percentage points (or roughly $25 billion for that year), leaving about $111 billion to be sequestered from the remaining mandatory accounts. Because the law entirely exempts many large accounts including low-income programs and social security, the annual resources available from which OMB must draw is, in CBO’s estimation, only between $85 billion to $90 billion, significantly less than the amount that would be required to be sequestered. . . . . 

 

. . . . Given that the required reduction in spending exceeds the estimated amount of available resources in each year over the next 10 years, in the absence of further legislation, OMB would be unable to implement the full extent of outlay reductions required by the PAYGO law.

 

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/costestimate/hr1hoyerletter.pdf

 

Then -

Hoyer Statement on the CBO’s Analysis that the GOP Tax Bill Will Trigger Statutory PAYGO Sequester Cuts

 

(I left out the name calling and innuendos and copied and pasted just the facts about PayGo as indicated in this back and forth between Rep Hoyer and the CBO on this matter. 

 

Hoyer Statement on the CBO’s Analysis that the GOP Tax Bill Will Trigger Statutory PAYGO Sequester C...

 

. . . . CBO shows how, under current law, statutory PAYGO will result in the complete elimination of all funding to dozens of mandatory programs next year, from assistance to farmers to border enforcement to student loans, as well as a roughly $25 billion in cut to Medicare. . . . . 

“I wrote the statutory PAYGO law when Democrats were in the Majority because I believe that Congress has a responsibility not to load the next generation with a massive amount of debt. . . . .

“While it is possible to avoid the PAYGO enforcement cuts triggered by their added deficits, Republicans would need Democratic votes to do it, requiring them to abandon their go-it-alone partisan strategy, . . . .  

 

So so it appears that we could SAVE 25 billion in Medicare, in fact CMS is already working on the savings - much like we did with the amount SAVED used for Obamacare.

 

It seems to me that the Democrats are gonna be forced to the table to help control some of these programs as mentioned in Rep Hoyers response as Minority Whip to the CBO letter if some form of tax reform happens.  We do not really know what the end product will be.

 

Welcome back, cat2015 -

Have at it - last word from me tonight.

* * * * * * It’s Always Something - Roseanne Rosannadanna
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Re: $300 Billion MEDICARE CUT in the Tax Bill proposed by the HOUSE GOP/NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS

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Message 7 of 21

@cat2015 wrote:

ByronDennis assumes that PAYGO won't apply to Medicare, if everything goes exactly as he assumes it should.

 

There's an easy way to solve this problem--just insert language in the tax cut bill that exempts Medicare from PAYGO. Instead of making assumptions, make it explicit.

 

However, that still doesn't solve the problem of how you put $1.5 trillion on the national credit card. The ultimate aim of the tax cut bill is to "starve the beast" and force major cuts and changes to entitlements. Bruce Bartlett, former domestic policy advisor to Ronald Reagan (hardly a "leftist") explains the logic behind these tax cuts and the starve-the-beast strategy:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/11/16/first-republicans-want-tax-cuts-nex...

 


The best way to solve this problem is not to vote for any Reb. for congress period. You get what you elect.

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Re: $300 Billion MEDICARE CUT in the Tax Bill proposed by the HOUSE GOP/NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS

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Message 8 of 21

ByronDennis assumes that PAYGO won't apply to Medicare, if everything goes exactly as he assumes it should.

 

There's an easy way to solve this problem--just insert language in the tax cut bill that exempts Medicare from PAYGO. Instead of making assumptions, make it explicit.

 

However, that still doesn't solve the problem of how you put $1.5 trillion on the national credit card. The ultimate aim of the tax cut bill is to "starve the beast" and force major cuts and changes to entitlements. Bruce Bartlett, former domestic policy advisor to Ronald Reagan (hardly a "leftist") explains the logic behind these tax cuts and the starve-the-beast strategy:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/11/16/first-republicans-want-tax-cuts-nex...

 

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Re: $300 Billion MEDICARE CUT in the Tax Bill proposed by the HOUSE GOP/NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS

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Message 9 of 21

ByronDennis wrote: "The Tax bill has nothing to do with Medicare."

 

The tax cuts have everything to do with Medicare because they automatically trigger cuts to Medicare, beginning next year, that will amount to $500 billion over a decade. The CBO (hardly a "leftist" organization) has announced $25 billion in cuts for next year.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/15/us/politics/republicans-entitlement-programs-deficit.html?rref=co...

 

In addition to these automatic cuts to mandatory spending (the PAYGO rule), Paul Ryan and Kevin Brady have both signaled that they intend to follow tax cuts with entitlement "reform." The GOP 2018 budget bill includes $500 billion in Medicare cuts over ten years (plus $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts) in an effort to persuade so-called fiscal hawks in their party that the tax cuts would be paid for.

 

Expect to see the resurrection of Ryan's plan to turn Medicaid into a state block grant with caps on federal contributions. Expect also to see a resurrection of Ryan's plan to turn Medicare into a voucher program.

 

We have no business adding $1.5 trillion to the debt to deliver tax cuts to multinational corporations and wealthy donors. These giveaways always trigger automatic Medicare cuts.

 

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Re: $300 Billion MEDICARE CUT in the Tax Bill proposed by the HOUSE GOP/NOW FOR THE BAD NEWS

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Message 10 of 21

@rj7500 wrote:
You are correct ron dennis there is no cut to Medicare in the tax bill. However in the devious manner in which the GOP works. the enormous cost the of tax bill would prompt immediate and automatic spending cuts to Medicare of $25 billion in 2018 alone. The Bill would add an estimated $1.5 trillion to the deficit over a decade. Under the "pay-as-you-go" rules a cut to the mandatory spending of 4 percent to Medicare is mandated because of the increase of the deficit. 25 billion times 10 years equals $250 billion--not quite the $300 billion mentioned.

No sorry but you are misreading something or spreading fake news. It is totally false that

  • "the enormous cost the of tax bill would prompt immediate and automatic spending cuts to Medicare of $25 billion in 2018 alone."

 

Since you did not provide any source, I can only assume that you are referring to the CBO letter to Representative Hoyer. Here is the letter:Slide1.JPGPage 1 of 2

Slide2.JPGPage 2 of 2

 

To understand what might happen (there is nothing "automatic") you need to read this letter. The key sentences are underlined in blue. There are two possibilities IF the Paygo situation applies.

  • Congress can simply put in a paragraph or pass a separate law  that says Paygo doesn't apply or doesn't apply to Medicare. That would put the Democrats in the interesting position of having to vote to cut Medicare.
  • The administration's Office of Management and Budget could simply declare that Paygo doesn't apply or doesn't apply to Medicare (it could do this for any reason -- see the word "solely" -- but a good one would be that,  in Medicare terms, $25 billion is a trivial amount well within the margin of estimating error). That would put the Democrats in the interesting position of having to sue OMB to cut Medicare.

I don't think either of those things would happen but more important, I think the Republicans will end up with a law that doesn't even bring Paygo into play... not because of this but simply for their own philosophical reasons

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