How do I know when to take the banker’s offer in Deal or No Deal?

[AARPTeri]

In Deal or No Deal, after you eliminate some cases, you’ll get a call from the banker, who will offer you some amount of money to walk away. The banker often drives a hard bargain – but when should you take it?

While you can go by your gut feeling, one way to suss out the right move is to use “expected value.”  Put simply, the expected value is the average of all the remaining case values. So if you have four cases left, with the values of $1 million, $100,000, $50,000, and $1, the expected value is $287,500.25. Is the banker offering more than that, or can you counteroffer to get there? If so, it’s probably a good deal.

The difficulty comes in when you realize you need to do this equation in the 15 or so seconds the banker allows before assuming a NO DEAL. If you can do quick and dirty math, this could be a strategy worth pursuing!