Test Your Knowledge About Long-Term Care with AARP’s Long-Term Care Quiz

Reply
Treasured Social Butterfly
Posts: 4,170
Registered: ‎04-07-2015

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 1 of 26 (1,667 Views)

2Papa wrote:

My broker says the market will skyrocket with the Trumpster in office.  Buy, buy, buy.  Don't get left out!


I happen to be optimistic on the economy and the market. That said, your broker may be right, and your broker may be wrong; either way he or she makes money on your frenetic sounding plan.

 

Don't get me wrong, I hope it works out for you. But I'm more comfortable with the lower risk and greater flexibility that comes with a long range plan and diverse holdings.

 

 

The key to success is to keep growing in all areas of life - mental, emotional, spiritual, as well as physical. - Julius Erving
Super Social Butterfly
Posts: 589
Registered: ‎07-23-2010

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 2 of 26 (1,688 Views)

My broker says the market will skyrocket with the Trumpster in office.  Buy, buy, buy.  Don't get left out!

Treasured Social Butterfly
Posts: 4,170
Registered: ‎04-07-2015

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 3 of 26 (1,875 Views)

MaVolta wrote:

Epster wrote:

An idea to look into for CDs:  a 2, 3 or 5 year 'raise my rate CD' or IRA. This allows you to adjust your interest rate (usually once) during the term. I have a gaggle of these, staggered, so I can (hopefully, theoretically) catch beneficial interest rate increases.

 

 


I've heard that using "ladder" CD's  is a good way to minimize risk and maintain some short term liquidity. I'm thinking of moving some money here for better balance should interest rates go up, and the market go crazy. Some analysts are saying that we are overdue for a correction.


@MaVolta Exactly my thinking on the liquidity. Also, if all goes according to plan, once we finally put this place on the market (8 years?), we'll still be too young to collect SSI (if any) so will need flexibility for that transition. 

 

 

The key to success is to keep growing in all areas of life - mental, emotional, spiritual, as well as physical. - Julius Erving
Valued Social Butterfly
Posts: 1,451
Registered: ‎10-09-2009

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 4 of 26 (2,320 Views)

Epster wrote:

An idea to look into for CDs:  a 2, 3 or 5 year 'raise my rate CD' or IRA. This allows you to adjust your interest rate (usually once) during the term. I have a gaggle of these, staggered, so I can (hopefully, theoretically) catch beneficial interest rate increases.

 

 


I've heard that using "ladder" CD's  is a good way to minimize risk and maintain some short term liquidity. I'm thinking of moving some money here for better balance should interest rates go up, and the market go crazy. Some analysts are saying that we are overdue for a correction.

Treasured Social Butterfly
Posts: 4,170
Registered: ‎04-07-2015

Re: Anti-establishment mood of America

Message 5 of 26 (2,857 Views)

Epster wrote:

To expound on my semi-cryptic posit regarding money being emotion ...

 

The strong anti-establishment mood of our country put on full display by the presidential election has been evident in other ways for a number of years: the rise of micro breweries and the struggle of automobile manufacturers to woo Millennials. I haven't seen numbers, but suspect if someone looked into it they'd find one of the most popular autos for Millennials is a pre 2000 Jeep Cherokee. Awesome for chop shops and after markets, but not so good for new car sales.

 

There are other signs, of course, that this anti-establishment mood cuts across ethnic, religious, economic status delineations. 

 

Invest wisely.


Yesterday we went scouting in no man's land for a new, harder time trial practice route ... and saw two huge hops operations as well as a brewery that's in the middle of doubling its size. And now I'm reading about what's out for 2017 and microbreweries are on the list.  LOL. I don't know I believe that, but then these days it seems one is wise to be skeptical of most everything one reads.

 

Meanwhile Colorado is still one of the fittest states, but no longer one of the healthiest ... due to our alcohol consumption.

 

File in your 'whatever' folder. Smiley Happy

 

 

 

The key to success is to keep growing in all areas of life - mental, emotional, spiritual, as well as physical. - Julius Erving
Frequent Social Butterfly
Posts: 227
Registered: ‎05-28-2011

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 6 of 26 (2,884 Views)

Hello all, Happy New Year! 

 

2016 was so wild and unpredictable in so many ways, I'm at a loss to even contemplate what 2017 might bring. I think I last checked in here a year ago, that was when I was at the beginning of being a "dual momentum" investor. I've been working in that mode through all of 2016, and I was pleased with the experience. I'll continue it into 2017. If we get into severe problems, the momentum kill-switch throws me into bonds. I got "whipsawed" in 2016, but we got back into the market by May, and the year ended fine. Had the January correction continued like we all feared it might, I'd have already been in bonds.

 

Two years ago, I was interested in the Permanent Portfolio (1/4 US equities, 1/4 long US Treasuries, 1/4 Gold, 1/4 cash), but I lost interest in that, because I realized although it is a low-volatility allocation, it's also moderate growth as well. It's still on my mind as maybe a retirement-phase portfolio, but I'm not using it now. Maybe someday, in a modified form.

 

But as for the Gold, I'm still waiting for a buying opportunity in gold, below $1000 per ounce if possible. One way this could play out is that everyone could get so sold on the idea that Trump is the Economic Messiah, and he's going to make things great again, etc., and then gold gets beaten down more and more because people buy into the euphoria and exhilaration and rainbows and moonbeams talk... "it's risk-on", and everyone sells their gold to buy stocks. But if he does get his stimulus and tax cuts, the debt is just going to explode, he's going to grow Obama's 20 Trillion National Debt into something even bigger... and if there is some GDP growth created, it will ignite inflation, maybe 4%, and then people are going to worry about the slipping purchasing power of the US Dollar, maybe at that point gold starts a new bull run. That's the gold narrative I follow, based on ideas from Doug Eberhardt and Jim Rickards.  But if it doesn't get cheap enough in 2017... ehhh... I'm not going to chase it.

 

My 401k and HSA at work... it's very difficult to use momentum in those because of the excessive trading rules. I have a diversified but also oddly-tilted buy-and-hold portfolio:

 

34% US small cap value*

21% Foreign developed

5%   Emerging market

5%   High yield bond

17.5% Total bond market

17.5% Cash equivalent*

 

*The 401k and HSA concentrate on Small Cap Value because the Dual Momentum portfolio focuses on Large Caps. I am piling on lots of cash instead of bonds because of bond interest rate risk. 

 

With my tax refund, I plan to get $5,000 in inflation-protected US Treasury paper I-bonds. That's what I'm doing, and what I'm preparing for. I hope to keep moving forward if markets do, but have a safe haven to run to if things get rotten. Same as any year!


Sincerely,
Peter
Recognized Social Butterfly
Posts: 837
Registered: ‎09-03-2011

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 7 of 26 (2,896 Views)

Once short and long-term capital gains have been posted for the 4th quarter it’s always time to take earnings off the table.  I don’t know what is going to happen with the market in 2017 but I do know for certain I’m not getting any younger, so I'm going to spend any earnings while I still can.
I hear “Tuskers” is a great beer. Gotta visit Africa to try one though.

Treasured Social Butterfly
Posts: 4,170
Registered: ‎04-07-2015

Anti-establishment mood of America

Message 8 of 26 (2,928 Views)

To expound on my semi-cryptic posit regarding money being emotion ...

 

The strong anti-establishment mood of our country put on full display by the presidential election has been evident in other ways for a number of years: the rise of micro breweries and the struggle of automobile manufacturers to woo Millennials. I haven't seen numbers, but suspect if someone looked into it they'd find one of the most popular autos for Millennials is a pre 2000 Jeep Cherokee. Awesome for chop shops and after markets, but not so good for new car sales.

 

There are other signs, of course, that this anti-establishment mood cuts across ethnic, religious, economic status delineations. 

 

Invest wisely.

The key to success is to keep growing in all areas of life - mental, emotional, spiritual, as well as physical. - Julius Erving
Treasured Social Butterfly
Posts: 4,170
Registered: ‎04-07-2015

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

[ Edited ]
Message 9 of 26 (2,937 Views)

nctarheel wrote:

Epster wrote:

Anheuser-Busch bought Modelo in 2013. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/06/05/a-b-inbev-completes-modelo-acquisition.aspx

 

(I used to drink the occasional Modelo, but not anymore, in no small part because A-B bought them and I know that means they are using GMO sugar. No thank you.) 

 

This alone is reason enough for me to stay away from Modelo stock.  No matter how well they used to sell, A-B is going to run them into the ground with their limited understanding of the new market.

 

 

With all due respect, I think your post is slightly in error.

 

AB InBev does not own the rights to manufacture Modelo for distribution into the United States. The manufacture and distribution rights for Modelo in the United States is owned by Constellation Brands.

 

So if you don't like InBev, drink up, they don't have anything to do with Modelo in the United States.


I just happen to think that most US beer manufactured by big companies is akin to horse piss. We only started drinking beer with the micro-brewery explosion. 

 

Forgot to type this sentence earlier (coffee, I need coffee! Smiley Happy ):  A-B still owns 95% of Grupo Modelo's stock, so the anti-trust agreement strikes me as a technicality.

 

Anyway, no worries. Check a label, though, as last time I checked (~8 months ago) A-B's name was still on the label of a Modelo. Old labels, maybe? Anyway, I don't know this for fact, but it is also doubtful that they are not using GMO sugar in the beer, as the bulk of all sugar in the US is GMO. (Indeed, the rule of thumb is if it does not state 'cane sugar' on the label, it's GMO.)

 

Forever swiming against the tide, we've reduced our alcoholic consumption to fewer than 2 beers a month, --we've gone crazy this holiday season and have 3 since Thanksgiving, LOL-- so we buy premium non-GMO local beer. Much better dark beers to be had in the micro brew arena, according to our taste buds.

 

All fwiw. Smiley Happy

The key to success is to keep growing in all areas of life - mental, emotional, spiritual, as well as physical. - Julius Erving
Valued Social Butterfly
Posts: 5,513
Registered: ‎05-16-2009

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 10 of 26 (2,946 Views)

Epster wrote:

Anheuser-Busch bought Modelo in 2013. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/06/05/a-b-inbev-completes-modelo-acquisition.aspx

 

(I used to drink the occasional Modelo, but not anymore, in no small part because A-B bought them and I know that means they are using GMO sugar. No thank you.) 

 

This alone is reason enough for me to stay away from Modelo stock.  No matter how well they used to sell, A-B is going to run them into the ground with their limited understanding of the new market.

 

 

With all due respect, I think your post is slightly in error.

 

AB InBev does not own the rights to manufacture Modelo for distribution into the United States. The manufacture and distribution rights for Modelo in the United States is owned by Constellation Brands.

 

So if you don't like InBev, drink up, they don't have anything to do with Modelo in the United States.