Divide and Conquer COVID 19, well maybe

[dd4954]

Statement of the Problem:  People want and need to get on with their lives.  Let’s use the data and definitions from below to quickly get to the point.  The UNDER55 has nearly the same susceptibility (POC = 1.86%) to COVID 19 as the 55PLUS (POC = 1.31%).  In other words, COVID 19 doesn’t care about your age. 

More important, the UNDER55 realize that they are significantly less susceptible (POD = 0.298%) than the 55PLUS  (POD = 6.84%) to extreme cases leading to death.  The UNDER55 want to know why the seemingly intolerable social restrictions are applied to all when the 55PLUS is certainly more vulnerable to death resulting from the COVID 19.   Thus, the reason for this writing is to provide a way out for the UNDER55 while protecting the 55PLUS.  Maybe, it is just thinking out of the box.

First, let’s divide our AZ community (since I live here) into two groups.  One group is UNDER55 (i.e., children, millennials, wanting to go to work, pay bills, schooling, etc).  The other group is 55PLUS (i.e., some retirees, some still working, etc.).  Selection of 55y was done by data inspection of the death bar chart in the ADHS data.

Then, do some background calculations:

1. The population of AZ is 7,300,000 thereabout
2. The population of 55+ in AZ is about 30% (statista.com) x 7,300,000 = 2,190,000
3. The population of under 55 in AZ is about 70% x 7,300,000 = 5,110,000

And then, using the AZ Department of Health Services (ADHS) Data Dashboard from July 13, 2020, let’s calculate the following:

Characteristics of the UNDER 55

Total number of deaths is 8 (<20) + 128 (20-44y) + 147 (45-54y) = 283

Total number of cases is 13868 (<20) + 61881 (20-44y) + 19218 (45-54y) = 94967

Percentage of deaths (POD) for under 55y cases is (283/94967) x 100% = 0.298%

Percentage of cases (POC) for under 55y population is (94967/5110000) x 100% = 1.86%

Characteristics of the 55PLUS

Total number of deaths is 312 (55-64y) + 1650 (65+y) = 1962

Total number of cases is 14534 (55-64y) + 14152 (65+y) = 28686

Percentage of deaths (POD) for 55+y cases is (1962/28686) x 100% = 6.84%

Percentage of cases (POC) for 55+y population is (28686/2190000) x 100% = 1.31%

So, what do we do with this data?  I generated a list of rules and responsibilities for UNDER55 and for 55PLUS.  There are probably others.  You may also disagree with what is presented.  It is just food for thought.  So, here we go

UNDER55

1. Age group would include children to just under 55y.
2. Realize that being infected with COVID 19, you will survive.  The POD is 0.298% (see above) which is about the same as seasonal influenza but the symptoms are/can be more severe.  They will overcome.
3. Parents, singles permitted to go to work, plays, movies, watch Cardinals, etc.
4. Children would go school.  Parents to follow the COVID-19 guidelines of the school.
5. Must follow COVID 19 rules of all restaurants, movies, bars, and social events
6. To mitigate spreading in public, use masks, social distancing, wash hands, etc., until we get a vaccine.
7. Absolutely minimize or no visits with 55PLUS.  No visiting of parents for Sunday afternoon dinner.

55PLUS

1. Group age would be 55+y.
2. Realize that catching COVID-19 is significantly more detrimental (see above, POD is 6.84%) to your health particularly those with additional chronic illness(es). POD increases with age.
3. Would forgo the following: going to work, plays, movies, and watching Cardinals, or anywhere there are social gatherings until we get a vaccine -- In other words, leave these events to the UNDER55 only.   We older folks are 23 times (i.e., 6.84%/0.298% = 23) or greater (!) more likely than the UNDER55 to move on to the Promised Land.
4. If still employed, work at home on the computer or whatever.  Employers must give in on this!
5. To mitigate spreading in public, use masks, social distancing, wash hands, etc., until we get a vaccine.
6. Absolutely minimize or no visits with UNDER55.  Yes, the grandchildren must be pushed away.

Numbers are insensitive to pain, suffering and death.  However, numbers are used herein to try to provide a way to deal with the COVID 19 pandemic other than opening and closing businesses, etc., for all in the “hotspot” cities and states. 

I believe that a separation of the population into UNDER55 and 55PLUS groups each with their rules and restrictions will bring down the number of deaths and better control and temper the viciousness of the COVID19.  The spread of the COVID-19 will be controlled initially by the vigilant use of masks, social distancing and washing hands, etc., and eventually, the discovery of a COVID-19 vaccine.

We all must forgo our vanity, and the inconvenience of using a mask to stand strong against COVID-19.  Then, we will take charge of our lives again.  I don’t know if COVID 19 will ever be controlled until we get a vaccine.