topic Re: 📋 8 Numbers Tell Social Security's Past — and Its Future (AARP Article) in Social Security

📋 8 Numbers Tell Social Security's Past — and Its Future (AARP Article)

SummerOnTheWay1 — Fri, 08 Aug 2025 15:04:23 GMT

FROM THE ARTICLE.

8 Numbers That Tell the Story of Social Security.

How more than 69 million Americans came to rely on the program — and why it’s now in trouble.

By Andy Markowitz, AARP. Reviewed by Joel Eskovitz, AARP. Published August 06, 2025.

Social Security has always been about numbers, ever since it was established 90 years ago this month by President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s signature on a historic act of Congress.

You work 10 years, earn 40 Social Security credits, and you are eligible for benefits when you retire. A complex mathematical formula determines how much you’ll get each month. A 12.4 payroll tax on almost all U.S. workers’ income provides the funding that keeps benefits flowing to (as of June 2025) more than 69 million Americans. A unique nine-digit code assigned to each of us keeps it all straight.

USE LINK BELOW TO READ THE ARTICLE.

https://www.aarp.org/social-security/ssa-by-the-numbers/

Re: 📋 8 Numbers Tell Social Security's Past — and Its Future (AARP Article)

GailL1 — Sat, 09 Aug 2025 16:10:50 GMT

I was really surprised that so many people are taking their Social Security Retirement benefits at a reduced rate BEFORE their full retirement age and the extremely small % that are waiting to draw them until they are 70 and earn all their delayed retirement credits.

It was somewhat hopeful to see the % of those waiting until 70 rising so much in 2024.

The numbers, in the report article, that are missing are from the SS Trust fiscal Data Base.

Year: 2024 [in millions]

Income going into the program: 1, 417, 757

from payroll taxes - employer + emplpyee
from taxes on benefits
from interest on the reserve special treasuries

Total cost to the program: 1, 484, 753

Amount Having to come out of reserve ( 66, 997 )

Remaining Reserve 2, 721, 466

and with the article report saying this: The Census Bureau estimates that the share of the population age 65-plus grew in all 50 states from 2020 to 2024, while the share of those under 18 — the future workers who will fund Social Security — declined.

We have a problem with these numbers big time !!!!

Drastic measures for drastic times?

Yep, probably so -

Re: 📋 8 Numbers Tell Social Security's Past — and Its Future (AARP Article)

papawofboo — Mon, 11 Aug 2025 01:15:50 GMT

My dad turned 62 and I tried to get him to retire. With his SS and company's pension they would have been ok. Not him, he was going for the full amount.

He didn't make it, but I made up my mind right then and there that at 62 I was going to start drawing. I didn't retire but I started getting some of my money back.

My sister-in-law lost her husband. She was able to draw off of his account until she became 70 and then she got all of her benefits for waiting. She made out like a bandit.

To me it's a crap shoot and I don't blame anyone on the way they choose. But in the back of my mind, I remember my cardiologist telling me how many times my heart beats in a day. That times 365 times 62 is a very BIG number.

Re: 📋 8 Numbers Tell Social Security's Past — and Its Future (AARP Article)

GailL1 — Mon, 11 Aug 2025 02:51:56 GMT

I fault nobody for taking the benefits when they do 62, FRA or at 70 or anywhere in between.

However, I just want them to understand what they are doing especially with the earnings cap in place for those who retire earlier than their retirement age.

They should ber informed of the reduction in benefits and the clawback if they go over the earnings limit. Sure they get the clawback amount back years down the road after their FRA but not like many of them think - they just get an amount added to their monthly benefit - it does not come back all at once.

I hear about so many really sad situations where just the understand of the program may have made some difference - our Government is no very good at teaching people about this program or actually not too many other either. They hear, they think they know, they say “somebody told them” - that isn’t anyway to plan IMO.

Reduced benefits are life long - inflation and the cost of living still rises and the COLA is not adequate to cover all the increased cost that may affect a beneficiary - we now see the result of escalating rent and insurance cost of all kinds and even state and local taxes.

But then I hear them complain about what they are getting as a benefit - after leaving several hundred dollars a month on the table by retiring early.

So really, all I am saying is actions have consequences - good or bad - so I just want people to understand.

What does get me though is the number of people that file for early benefits, get a reduced amount and then keep working full force - maybe even making more than they ever have in those last 5-years of their work history.

But then we do have to keep in mind that at 62, one’s minor child or children would be younger and they also would be getting a substantial benefit even longer - since unless the kid is disabled this auxiliary benefit stops at 18/19 depending on when the kid graduates from HS.

Yep, let’s rack up those SS dollars while one can - who care that it is going broke. Right?

Re: 📋 8 Numbers Tell Social Security's Past — and Its Future (AARP Article)

RickS467730 — Mon, 11 Aug 2025 22:42:43 GMT

I get your point, and I agree — people should understand the trade-offs before filing early. In my case, I’ve looked closely at the earnings cap, clawback rules, and the lifetime benefit impact. For me, taking SS now instead of at FRA in 5 months means I wouldn’t “catch up” for about 14 years — and there’s no guarantee Congress won’t change the rules before then. That makes the timing, stability, and fit with my broader retirement plan more important than squeezing out a slightly higher monthly amount. It’s not about “racking up dollars while we can,” but about making an informed choice that works best for my situation while still being mindful of the program’s long-term health.

Re: 📋 8 Numbers Tell Social Security's Past — and Its Future (AARP Article)

Tonster521 — Thu, 14 Aug 2025 16:00:06 GMT

@RickS467730, It appears you are using 0% as the discount rate to arrive at 14 years. If you use a greater value such as 3%, it will take close to 20 years. When comparing two amounts, the time value of money requires a reasonable discount rate. I am providing a link to a calculator that will estimate how long your money will last https://www.calcxml.com/calculators/how-long-will-my-money-last?skn=#detailedResultsTop I used $2,000 per month or $10,000 to represent 5 months of SS Benefits. You can use your own amounts to determine a closer estimate. The reduction factor for SS Benefits is 5/9 of 1% per month or .005555556 /month which I rounded to .00556/month.

Re: 📋 8 Numbers Tell Social Security's Past — and Its Future (AARP Article)

RickS467730 — Fri, 15 Aug 2025 00:40:03 GMT

I get your point on the time value of money, and yes—using a positive discount rate changes the math. At 3%, my break-even point isn’t 14 years—it’s closer to 12. And when I factor in investing those early benefits—even conservatively—I’d never realistically catch up to the FRA amount. For me, it’s not just about the math; it’s about locking in a lower monthly benefit for life versus putting that money to work now and letting compounding do its thing.

Re: 📋 8 Numbers Tell Social Security's Past — and Its Future (AARP Article)

Tonster521 — Fri, 15 Aug 2025 13:16:32 GMT

@RickS467730, How did you arrive at 12 years as as a breakeven when adding 3% compounding annually?

Re: 📋 8 Numbers Tell Social Security's Past — and Its Future (AARP Article)

Tonster521 — Sat, 07 Mar 2026 12:27:22 GMT

@gail1, I received an email (positive reply) regarding one of my replies from August 2025. So, I reviewed the thread and I don't know why I did not offer some info or reply to your replies.

At any rate, I agree that folks have various reasons for electing SS Benefits Early. However. if one has stopped working, voluntary or involuntary, there is a mathematical advantage to starting SS Benefits Early. It is related to the discount rate (the rate of return on one's investments, if any) and the time value of money.

I am providing a link to a SS Bulletin that reviews the pros and cons of starting Early. at FRA, or Delaying the SS Benefit income stream https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v76n2/v76n2p1.html Hopefully, I copied and pasted it correctly.

The SS Bulletin is somewhat mathematical and includes actuarial concepts which most folks have difficultly understanding. But nonetheless folks starting Early inadvertently are making financially sound decisions.

The info in the SS Bulletin which was dated May 2016 uses data from the SS Trustees Report from maybe 2013 published 2014 (see footnotes). In that Report, the SS Actuary uses 2.9% as the discount rate. In my replies on this thread and others throughout the years, I have rounded that to 3.0% for arithmetic simplicity. My goal is for folks to understand the concept rather than develop one's SS Benefit to the penny or even next dollar.

My reply to Rick asking for the arithmetic/math how he arrived at his results was not answered.

Lastly, I am sure you will understand the data and the analysis that is noted in the SS Bulletin. It is hard to disagree with numbers and arithmetic/math. So, for folks (other readers) who do not understand the analysis, simply read the conclusion. It is noted that Males should never delay to age 70 inasmuch as the percentage(s) for survival (time) that is needed is/are not favorable regardless of the discount rate. For Females, there is a slight advantage because of a longer average life expectancy, but at discount rates less than .07% or .007. That means females on average earning 1% or more do not have an advantage delaying to age 70.

Most of the articles and publications that I read over the years concerning this topic do not disagree with the survival statistics. Those tend to disagree with using an appropriate discount rate. As I mentioned to Rick, it appeared he was using 0%. Who earns 0% on assets, if one has other assets?

Re: 📋 8 Numbers Tell Social Security's Past — and Its Future (AARP Article)

Tonster521 — Sat, 07 Mar 2026 13:22:54 GMT

@SummerOnTheWay1 , Thanks for your positive replies. The subject, when to start SS Benefits, is probably the most discussed subject regarding SS Benefits. I hope you get a laugh when I tell you this story. I have been retired 11 years. I continue to exercise, mostly walking, on an indoor track at the local park district when outside weather is unbearable. In the Winter, there are a large number of seniors that due the same to stay out of the cold, snow, ice and brutal wind. It is inevitable that conversations center on SS Benefits and how to obtain more money. When I get "deep in the weeds" about SS Benefits and Discount Rates, some of the folks think I am talking about "shopping" at a store. This may be a contributing reason why folks are confused with when to start SS Benefits.