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Treasured Social Butterfly
Posts: 3,449
Registered: ‎04-07-2015

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

[ Edited ]
Message 11 of 26 (2,179 Views)

nctarheel wrote:

ASTRAEA wrote:

@nctarheel - I'd never heard of Modelo, but they seem to have started advertising on TV recently. I wonder if the're expanding, or that's an indication of demographic changes.


Modelo Especial and Corona have been two of the top ten selling beers in the U.S. for a long time but the change in demographics probably doesn't hurt either.


@nctarheel @ASTRAEA

 

A few words of caution ...

 

Anheuser-Busch bought Modelo in 2013. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/06/05/a-b-inbev-completes-modelo-acquisition.aspx

 

Budweiser sales have been on the sharp decline: http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/11/24/budweiser_sales_decline_americans_now_drink_more_craf...

 

And A-B has been trying everything they can to turn their overgrown, outdated and underloved ship around to meet the new 'exotic' and micro-brew tastes of the market. One of which is to buy up brands so they can make sales to people who would never buy a Bud. (I used to drink the occasional Modelo, but not anymore, in no small part because A-B bought them and I know that means they are using GMO sugar. No thank you.) 

 

This alone is reason enough for me to stay away from Modelo stock.  No matter how well they used to sell, A-B is going to run them into the ground with their limited understanding of the new market.

 

Meanwhile, the Colorado micro-brew industry is growing gangbusters. http://kdvr.com/2015/08/14/colorados-craft-beer-industry-sees-largest-growth-on-record/ Some of these 'micros' are becoming huge business with multi-state plants. If I was going to invest in beer, I'd look into these companies.

 

That said, in my own little skewed view of the world, while I might buy both renewable and non-renewable energy stocks without thinking I'm being a bad human, I don't think I would invest in alcohol because I would find that distasteful. All alcohol is poison. Even the great tasting stuff. And American women in particular are now dying in record numbers because of alcohol consumption. But, ya know, that's me.

 

Oh shoot, I couldn't find the article I read this week that talked about the American women's sharply increasing death by vino, so this will have to do: http://pubs.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/brochurewomen/women.htm

 

Here's a more general piece: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/22/americans-are-drinking-themselves-to-death-at-...

 

OK. I'm done. As you were. :0

Colo Micro Breweries.png

The key to success is to keep growing in all areas of life - mental, emotional, spiritual, as well as physical. - Julius Erving
Treasured Social Butterfly
Posts: 19,390
Registered: ‎12-25-2011

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 12 of 26 (2,171 Views)

@nctarheel - I'm not much of a drinker, and definitely not a beer drinker. Last time I had something beer-like, it was Porter ale in Ireland, in the mid-1970s! Smiley Happy


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Valued Social Butterfly
Posts: 5,417
Registered: ‎05-16-2009

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 13 of 26 (2,003 Views)

ASTRAEA wrote:

@nctarheel - I'd never heard of Modelo, but they seem to have started advertising on TV recently. I wonder if the're expanding, or that's an indication of demographic changes.


Modelo Especial and Corona have been two of the top ten selling beers in the U.S. for a long time but the change in demographics probably doesn't hurt either.

Treasured Social Butterfly
Posts: 19,390
Registered: ‎12-25-2011

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 14 of 26 (1,585 Views)

@nctarheel - I'd never heard of Modelo, but they seem to have started advertising on TV recently. I wonder if the're expanding, or that's an indication of demographic changes.


Registered on Online Community since 2007!
Valued Social Butterfly
Posts: 5,417
Registered: ‎05-16-2009

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

[ Edited ]
Message 15 of 26 (1,101 Views)

ASTRAEA wrote:

@nctarheel - I've been doing a year end review of my equities, and I had to laugh about what "experts" say. I have ABEV, a SA producer/distributor of alcoholic beverages. I bought it when it had a 4-year track record of going up, and it continued its steep ascent for another 8 or so months .. but it's been pretty much downhill since then. It is down 40% from where I bought it. The dividends appear high now, because the price has dropped so much. Yet Morningstar gives it a 4* rating (out of 5*) .. go figure!

 

I recently added another stock to one of my IRAs which was 95% bonds, for more growth.


@ASTRAEA,

 

We actually have a beer stock too.

 

In fact, it is one of our "high flyers" due to luck.

 

It is Constellation Brands.

 

We bought it at $15.50 in 2009 and by 2013, it had doubled to $35.00. But then we got lucky. Ambev and Modelo wanted to merger and the Federal Government thought that would put too much "beer distribution" in the hands of one company. They forced those two companies to divest themselves of two major brands before they would allow the merger. The brands were Modelo and Corona, the two hottest selling beer brands in the U.S. The agreement was to either sell these brands or sell the distribution rights to these brands to Constellation, I don't remember which. Since then, Constellation went from $35/share to as high as $178/share. It has pulled back to $151 because the brands are Mexican beers and "you know who" may affect the sales of these beers here.

 

I probably should have schnitzeled a little of this position but S&P still ranks Constellation a Strong Buy with a $207 price target.

 

We were looking at all beer stocks in 2009 and almost any of them have had stellar returns.... except, I am sorry to say, the one you mentioned.

Treasured Social Butterfly
Posts: 3,449
Registered: ‎04-07-2015

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 16 of 26 (1,090 Views)

@nctarheel and @ASTRAEA

 

You two made me grin, because Buffett is one of the only ones I listen to carefully. Oh, sure, I read lots of commentary and study opinion pieces, and even hang out in techie forums in order to learn the facts behind corp PR spin, but in the end it is my opinion I follow. 

 

Indeed, if I only paid attention to my Twitter feed, I would be an emotional mess (and we all know money is emotion). I >only< follow meteorologists; fiduciaries; politicians --no PACS-- on both sides of the aisle and social commentary reporters. According to my Twitter feed, the sky has fallen nine times already today!

 

Meanwhile the sun is out and me and my baby are going for a Jeep ride in the snow! Heh heh. 

 

May 2017 bring you enormous returns.

The key to success is to keep growing in all areas of life - mental, emotional, spiritual, as well as physical. - Julius Erving
Treasured Social Butterfly
Posts: 19,390
Registered: ‎12-25-2011

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 17 of 26 (1,083 Views)

@nctarheel - I've been doing a year end review of my equities, and I had to laugh about what "experts" say. I have ABEV, a SA producer/distributor of alcoholic beverages. I bought it when it had a 4-year track record of going up, and it continued its steep ascent for another 8 or so months .. but it's been pretty much downhill since then. It is down 40% from where I bought it. The dividends appear high now, because the price has dropped so much. Yet Morningstar gives it a 4* rating (out of 5*) .. go figure!

 

I recently added another stock to one of my IRAs which was 95% bonds, for more growth.


Registered on Online Community since 2007!
Valued Social Butterfly
Posts: 5,417
Registered: ‎05-16-2009

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 18 of 26 (1,070 Views)

I am a believer in the Oracle of Omaha's mantra..... buy and hold........ unless the story drastically changes for a company.

 

For the most part, I purchased my portfolio from 2010 to about 2014. I have added and divested to/from a few equities during that time. I made sure I was diversified in both a sector sense and individual stock sense.

 

There have been a couple of large swings in my portfolio during this period, especially in 2011, if I remember correctly. When a downward trend occurs, I get rid of stocks in which I no longer have trust and add to those that I do. But basically, I kept calm and didn't sell in a panic as I have seen so many do.

 

The old rule of thumb to divest of stocks as you get older just doesn't apply anymore. Even conservative experts are saying to keep more of your total investments in stocks than they used to do.

 

My portfolio has had a 137% increase over my total investment costs. On top of that, S&P still ranks every stock I own, with one exception, as a buy. But that brings up another point. In most stocks, I can find experts that say BUY, BUY, BUY and also find experts that say SELL, SELL, SELL. That is why I take every experts opinion with "a grain of salt".

 

But many people don't feel comfortable with money in the market and I certainly feel less comfortable since the election.

 

But what has happened to the market since the election showed how much the EXPERTS were wrong. They predicted a market collapse with a Trump victory and they were right.... for one night. Now, he may still screw things up but the market trends are based on what the market thinks is going to happen in the future. If he is able to fulfill some of the economic promises made, the market will continue its rise; if he is hot air...... then we will see a collapse as earlier predicted.

 

Treasured Social Butterfly
Posts: 19,390
Registered: ‎12-25-2011

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

Message 19 of 26 (1,083 Views)

@retiredtraveler - They always say you lose if you try to "time the market". More recently, experts have been telling people to keep more in cash, to create an opportunity if rates go up. But one thing guaranteed is that money earns nothing these days, if it just sits in a bank account too long!


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Trusted Social Butterfly
Posts: 7,020
Registered: ‎02-14-2008

Re: Any prognostications on the stock market for 2017?

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Message 20 of 26 (1,091 Views)

ASTRAEA wrote:

".....No prognostications, but last week I bought IBM, General Dynamics & more stock in a regional company I already have ......".


You're brave!  Must be old age, but the markets really scare me now. Just too many things going on in the world, mostly unpleasant. I don't know how the markets will react.

 

On that note, everyone, have a good holiday!!!!


“The world is a book. Those who do not travel read only one page.”